Subseasonal Weather Outlook (4 – 17 March 2024)

Issued: 1 March 2024
First forecast week: 4 – 10 March 2024
Second forecast week: 11 – 17 March 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For much of the equatorial region, wetter conditions are predicted in Week 1 (4 – 10 March), followed by drier conditions in Week 2 (11 – 17 March).

Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March). Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

No discernable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present towards the end of February based on the RMM index. Models predict an MJO signal to develop in the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) by the start of the forecast period, propagating through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 1. Most models predict the MJO signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.