Subseasonal Weather Outlook (5 – 18 October 2020)

Issued 2 October 2020
First forecast week: 5 – 11 October
Second forecast week: 12 – 18 October


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over the eastern half of Southeast Asia for the next two weeks (5 – 18 October). During this time, models are also predicting wetter conditions for eastern Mainland Southeast Asia (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and parts of Thailand), although the location of these wetter conditions will depend on tropical cyclone evolution. Wetter conditions are also expected over northern Sumatra in week 1 (5 – 11 October).

Warmer temperatures are predicted for the central and northern parts of Myanmar for the next two weeks. Warmer temperatures are also predicted to develop over the western Maritime Continent in week 2 (12 – 18 October).

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent at the beginning of October (Phase 5). However, none of the models predict a coherent MJO signal to develop in the next two weeks.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.