Subseasonal Weather Outlook (6 – 19 February 2023)
Issued: 3 February 2023
First forecast week: 6 February 2023 – 12 February 2023
Second forecast week: 13 February 2023 – 19 February 2023
Drier conditions are expected over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 1 (6 – 12 February). These drier conditions are predicted to persist over the central Maritime Continent in Week 2 (13 – 19 February) and likely easing over the western Maritime Continent.
Wetter conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent and southeastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (13 – 19 February).
Warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the eastern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and much of the Philippines in Week 1 (6 – 12 February). Warmer than usual temperature is also expected over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 1, in line with the predicted drier conditions.
A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) at the start of February. Models predict the MJO signal to propagate eastwards and reach the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the first week of the forecast period. Some models then predict this signal to continue propagating through the Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7), while others predict the signal to decay over the Maritime Continent.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.