Subseasonal Weather Outlook (6 – 19 March 2023)

Issued: 3 March 2023
First forecast week: 6 March 2023 – 12 March 2023
Second forecast week: 13 March 2023 – 19 March 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Drier conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 March). Drier conditions are also expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (6 – 12 March).

Wetter conditions are expected over much of the western Maritime Continent in Week 1 (6 – 12 March) and much of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 2 (13 – 19 March).

Cooler than usual temperature are predicted over much of the ASEAN region in the next fortnight (6 – 19 March), in particular over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, the western and central Maritime Continent and parts of the Philippines.

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of February. Models predict an MJO signal to emerge over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) by Week 1 and propagate eastwards over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.