Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 August 2022)
Issued: 5 August 2022
First forecast week: 8 August – 14 August
Second forecast week: 15 August – 21 August
Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (8 – 21 August). Wetter conditions are also predicted in Week 1 (8 – 14 August) over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines.
Drier conditions are predicted in Week 1 (8 – 14 August) over the western equatorial region. These drier conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (15 – 21 August), apart from over southern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For temperature, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the southern Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (8 – 21 August). In Week 1 (8 – 14 August), in line with the predicted rainfall conditions, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the western equatorial region and cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the start of August based on the RMM Index. No significant MJO activity is predicted during most of the forecast period, although some models suggest an MJO signal may develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) towards the end of Week 2.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.