Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 February 2021)

Issued 5 February 2021
First forecast week: 8 February – 14 February
Second forecast week: 15 February – 21 February


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook


Wetter conditions are expected over the Philippines and northern Borneo in the next fortnight (8 – 21 February). In Week 1 (8 – 14 February), there is an increased chance of wetter conditions over north-eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as over southern Indonesia. In Week 2 (15 – 21 February), drier conditions are expected over the Malay Peninsula and western Borneo.

Warmer conditions than usual are expected over much of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (8 – 14 February). Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over western Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1, in particular Myanmar, northern Thailand and northern Lao PDR.

An MJO signal is currently present over the Western Pacific (Phase 6). The models are predicting a slow eastward propagation of the MJO, moving into Phase 7 in Week 1. In Week 2, models are either predicting the MJO to decay or continue slowly propagating eastward.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.