Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 January 2024)

Issued: 5 January 2024
First forecast week: 8 January – 14 January 2024
Second forecast week: 15 January – 21 January 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (8 – 21 January).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as the Philippines and the surrounding region in Week 1 (8 – 14 January).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region, as well as over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (8 – 21 January).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) at the start of January. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through Phase 3 in Week 1 and then the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.