Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 July 2024)

Issued: 3 July 2024
First forecast week: 8 – 14 July 2024
Second forecast week: 15 – 21 July 2024


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

In Week 1 (8 – 14 July), drier conditions are predicted over most of northern Mainland Southeast Asia.

In Week 2 (15 – 21 July), wetter conditions are predicted over the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia, while drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern half of the Maritime Continent.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (8 – 21 July).

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the start of July based on the RMM index. Most models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.