Subseasonal Weather Outlook (9 – 22 January 2023)

Issued: 6 January 2023
First forecast week: 9 January 2023 – 15 January 2023
Second forecast week: 16 January 2023 – 22 January 2023


Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook


Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in the next fortnight (9 – 22 January). Wetter conditions are also predicted to develop over the western Maritime Continent in Week 2 (16 – 22 January).

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the southern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (9 – 15 January).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted around central and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (9 – 15 January).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal weakened over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of January. Most models predict this MJO signal to strengthen again as the signal propagates eastward over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during Week 1, and reaching the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.