Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

1.1    Weak Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in March 2016 with winds that were light and from the northeaster on most days in March 2016. The monsoon rain belt continued to lie south of the equator. Most of the shower activities fell mostly over areas south of the equator while warm and dry weather conditions persisted over areas in the southern ASEAN region north of the equator, in particular over Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore.

1.2    Drought conditions affected several parts of the northern ASEAN region, and were particularly severe in northern Thailand, central and south Vietnam. Persistent warmer than usual temperatures were experienced in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. The northern states of Peninsular Malaysia, such as Chu Ping, Alor Star and Ipoh experienced very high temperatures on several consecutive days where the highest daily maximum temperatures ranged between 37 and 39 degrees Celsius.

1.3    Large scale drier than usual weather conditions were observed across many parts of ASEAN region in March 2016. In particular, significantly below-normal rainfall, i.e. less than 50% of normal rainfall, was received over areas north of the equator including northern ASEAN, Malaysia, Singapore, northern Sumatra and eastern Kalimantan. An exception was in the western coastal areas of Kalimantan where near-normal rainfall was received. The regional rainfall distribution for March 2016 is shown in Figure Fig. 1A.

2.1    Hotspot activities in Sumatra and Kalimantan were generally subdued by shower activities in March 2016. However, isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes were detected in some parts of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah such as central Pahang and Beaufort, Sabah due to drier than usual weather conditions there.

2.2    In the northern ASEAN region, hotspot activities remained elevated in March 2016 due to the prevailing dry weather conditions. The fires were particularly active along the borders between Myanmar and Thailand near Maehongsorn and Kanchanaburi provinces, as well as in northern Lao PDR and eastern Cambodia. Visible smoke plumes were seen emanating from these hotspot regions on a number of days. Hazy conditions and elevated PM10 readings exceeding 150ug/m3 were reported in Maehongsorn, Thailand.

3.   Status of El Niño/La Niña

1.1    Weak Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed in March 2016 with winds that were light and from the northeaster on most days in March 2016. The monsoon rain belt continued to lie south of the equator. Most of the shower activities fell mostly over areas south of the equator while warm and dry weather conditions persisted over areas in the southern ASEAN region north of the equator, in particular over Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore.

1.2    Drought conditions affected several parts of the northern ASEAN region, and were particularly severe in northern Thailand, central and south Vietnam. Persistent warmer than usual temperatures were experienced in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. The northern states of Peninsular Malaysia, such as Chu Ping, Alor Star and Ipoh experienced very high temperatures on several consecutive days where the highest daily maximum temperatures ranged between 37 and 39 degrees Celsius.

1.3    Large scale drier than usual weather conditions were observed across many parts of ASEAN region in March 2016. In particular, significantly below-normal rainfall, i.e. less than 50% of normal rainfall, was received over areas north of the equator including northern ASEAN, Malaysia, Singapore, northern Sumatra and eastern Kalimantan. An exception was in the western coastal areas of Kalimantan where near-normal rainfall was received. The regional rainfall distribution for March 2016 is shown in Figure Fig. 1A.

2.1    Hotspot activities in Sumatra and Kalimantan were generally subdued by shower activities in March 2016. However, isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes were detected in some parts of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah such as central Pahang and Beaufort, Sabah due to drier than usual weather conditions there.

2.2    In the northern ASEAN region, hotspot activities remained elevated in March 2016 due to the prevailing dry weather conditions. The fires were particularly active along the borders between Myanmar and Thailand near Maehongsorn and Kanchanaburi provinces, as well as in northern Lao PDR and eastern Cambodia. Visible smoke plumes were seen emanating from these hotspot regions on a number of days. Hazy conditions and elevated PM10 readings exceeding 150ug/m3 were reported in Maehongsorn, Thailand.

3.   Status of El Niño/La Niña