Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 April 2020)

Issued 30 March 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 April 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
For the first fortnight of April 2020, drier conditions are expected to persist over northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Borneo and most parts of the Philippines.

There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over some parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1. For some parts of the southern Maritime Continent (Java), wetter conditions could redevelop in Week 2.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over most of Southeast Asia for the second fortnight of April 2020. Models predict a high chance of way-above average temperatures (exceeding 90%-tile) for some parts of Myanmar, especially in Week 1.

An Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently present over the Indian Ocean and is expected to propagate eastward towards the Maritime Continent by Week 1. There is uncertainty across different models whether the MJO will continue to propagate to the western Pacific Ocean beyond Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 April 2020)

Issued 30 March 2020
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 – 15 April 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
For the first fortnight of April 2020, drier conditions are expected to persist over northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Borneo and most parts of the Philippines.

There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over some parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1. For some parts of the southern Maritime Continent (Java), wetter conditions could redevelop in Week 2.

For temperature, warmer conditions are expected over most of Southeast Asia for the second fortnight of April 2020. Models predict a high chance of way-above average temperatures (exceeding 90%-tile) for some parts of Myanmar, especially in Week 1.

An Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently present over the Indian Ocean and is expected to propagate eastward towards the Maritime Continent by Week 1. There is uncertainty across different models whether the MJO will continue to propagate to the western Pacific Ocean beyond Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.