Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the western equatorial region in Week 1 (10 – 16 November).

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (10 – 23 November). Wetter conditions are also predicted over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the western and central equatorial region in the next fortnight (10 – 23 November). Cooler than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated across the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the last week of October. Most models predict this signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the start of the forecast period and then continue propagating eastwards. Some models predict the signal to weaken over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the western equatorial region in Week 1 (10 – 16 November).

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (10 – 23 November). Wetter conditions are also predicted over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the western and central equatorial region in the next fortnight (10 – 23 November). Cooler than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated across the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during the last week of October. Most models predict this signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the start of the forecast period and then continue propagating eastwards. Some models predict the signal to weaken over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in Week 2 (17 – 23 November).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.