Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (13 – 26 October).

Warmer than usual temperatures for this time of the year are predicted over northern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (13 – 19 October).

There was no significant Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity in the first week of October. Most models predict development of an MJO signal over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) near the start of the forecast period, propagating to the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in Week 1 (13 – 19 October). Some models predict the signal to continue propagating and reach the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 2 (20 – 26 October).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (13 – 26 October).

Warmer than usual temperatures for this time of the year are predicted over northern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (13 – 19 October).

There was no significant Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity in the first week of October. Most models predict development of an MJO signal over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) near the start of the forecast period, propagating to the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in Week 1 (13 – 19 October). Some models predict the signal to continue propagating and reach the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 2 (20 – 26 October).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.