Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 30 June 2019)

Issued 12 June 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 June – 30 June

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter than usual conditions are forecast over the southern parts of Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as over Cambodia in the second fortnight of June 2019. In the southern ASEAN region, the drier than usual conditions observed over Java Sea areas during the first fortnight are expected to persist and spread to the north and east towards Sulawesi and Papua.

The current weak MJO signal is expected to strengthen slightly and propagate eastwards through Phase 4 and Phase 5. This is expected to bring wetter than usual conditions over the southern parts of the Mekong Sub-region. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay towards the end of the month.

The warm conditions over the northern ASEAN region are expected to persist, particularly for inland areas.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 30 June 2019)

Issued 12 June 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 June – 30 June

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter than usual conditions are forecast over the southern parts of Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as over Cambodia in the second fortnight of June 2019. In the southern ASEAN region, the drier than usual conditions observed over Java Sea areas during the first fortnight are expected to persist and spread to the north and east towards Sulawesi and Papua.

The current weak MJO signal is expected to strengthen slightly and propagate eastwards through Phase 4 and Phase 5. This is expected to bring wetter than usual conditions over the southern parts of the Mekong Sub-region. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay towards the end of the month.

The warm conditions over the northern ASEAN region are expected to persist, particularly for inland areas.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.