Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia as well as parts of the northwestern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (16 – 22 February). Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (16 February – 1 March).

Drier than usual conditions for this time of the year are predicted over much of the western and central equatorial region in Week 2 (23 February – 1 March).

No significant regional temperature anomalies are predicted in the next fortnight (16 February – 1 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) towards the middle of February 2026, based on the RMM index. Most models predict the signal to propagate eastwards towards the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 1 (16 – 22 February), with no significant MJO activity in Week 2 (23 February – 1 March).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia as well as parts of the northwestern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (16 – 22 February). Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (16 February – 1 March).

Drier than usual conditions for this time of the year are predicted over much of the western and central equatorial region in Week 2 (23 February – 1 March).

No significant regional temperature anomalies are predicted in the next fortnight (16 February – 1 March).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) towards the middle of February 2026, based on the RMM index. Most models predict the signal to propagate eastwards towards the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 1 (16 – 22 February), with no significant MJO activity in Week 2 (23 February – 1 March).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.