Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Oct – 31 Oct 2018)

Issued 15 Oct 2018
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Oct – 31 Oct

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

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From mid-October, wetter conditions may develop over Myanmar, especially over the coastal areas, due to an increase in rain showers that may be brought by tropical cyclones developing over the Bay of Bengal. The drier than normal conditions experienced by much of the Mekong sub-region in the first half of the month are likely to rescind, and a return to normal conditions can be expected for parts of the sub-region. Conditions are likely to be drier than normal in Viet Nam and the Philippines.

For the southern ASEAN region, drier conditions around the Java Sea area, including southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, can be expected.

Warmer temperatures are forecast for the Mekong sub-region, and in Java and southern Sumatra.

The MJO signal is active in Phase 2 and may contribute to the development of tropical lows over the Bay of Bengal and the wet anomaly over coastal Myanmar. Most models predict the weakening of the MJO as it moves into the Maritime Continent.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Oct – 31 Oct 2018)

Issued 15 Oct 2018
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Oct – 31 Oct

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

.

From mid-October, wetter conditions may develop over Myanmar, especially over the coastal areas, due to an increase in rain showers that may be brought by tropical cyclones developing over the Bay of Bengal. The drier than normal conditions experienced by much of the Mekong sub-region in the first half of the month are likely to rescind, and a return to normal conditions can be expected for parts of the sub-region. Conditions are likely to be drier than normal in Viet Nam and the Philippines.

For the southern ASEAN region, drier conditions around the Java Sea area, including southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, can be expected.

Warmer temperatures are forecast for the Mekong sub-region, and in Java and southern Sumatra.

The MJO signal is active in Phase 2 and may contribute to the development of tropical lows over the Bay of Bengal and the wet anomaly over coastal Myanmar. Most models predict the weakening of the MJO as it moves into the Maritime Continent.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.