Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent in Week 1 (18 – 24 August). Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the same area in the next fortnight (18 – 31 August).

In Week 1 (18 – 24 August), wetter conditions and cooler than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent.

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated from the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) towards the Indian Ocean in the first week of August. Most models predict this signal to continue propagating over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3), then weaken and become indiscernible in Week 1. Models disagree if the MJO signal will reach the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) before decaying.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime Continent in Week 1 (18 – 24 August). Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the same area in the next fortnight (18 – 31 August).

In Week 1 (18 – 24 August), wetter conditions and cooler than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent.

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated from the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) towards the Indian Ocean in the first week of August. Most models predict this signal to continue propagating over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3), then weaken and become indiscernible in Week 1. Models disagree if the MJO signal will reach the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) before decaying.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.