Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

For the equatorial region, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the region in Week 1 (19 – 25 August). In Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), wetter conditions are predicted to continue over the eastern half of the equatorial region, with drier conditions predicted to develop over much of the western half.

Elsewhere, wetter conditions are predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), while drier conditions are predicted to persist over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 August – 1 September).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in Week 1 (19 – 25 August). In Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), warmer temperatures are predicted over the western, southern, and eastern Maritime Continent.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) towards the middle of August based on the RMM index. Most models predict the signal to continue propagating eastwards, reaching the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) by the end of Week 1 and into Week 2, in line with the wetter conditions predicted.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

For the equatorial region, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the region in Week 1 (19 – 25 August). In Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), wetter conditions are predicted to continue over the eastern half of the equatorial region, with drier conditions predicted to develop over much of the western half.

Elsewhere, wetter conditions are predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), while drier conditions are predicted to persist over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (19 August – 1 September).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in Week 1 (19 – 25 August). In Week 2 (26 August – 1 September), warmer temperatures are predicted over the western, southern, and eastern Maritime Continent.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) towards the middle of August based on the RMM index. Most models predict the signal to continue propagating eastwards, reaching the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) by the end of Week 1 and into Week 2, in line with the wetter conditions predicted.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.