Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (22 August – 4 September 2022)

Issued: 19 August 2022
First forecast week: 22 August – 28 August
Second forecast week: 29 August – 4 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (22 August – 4 September). The highest likelihood for wetter conditions is over areas between the equator and 5°S.

Drier conditions are expected in Week 1 (22 – 28 August) over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. These drier conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (29 August – 4 September), apart from over coastal regions of Myanmar.

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (22 August – 4 September), in line with the wetter conditions. In Week 1 (22 – 28 August), warmer than usual temperature is predicted over northern Mainland Southeast Asia.

There was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal during the middle of August based on the RMM Index. Most models predict an MJO signal to develop in Week 1 over Africa (Phase 1) or the Indian Ocean (Phase 2), propagating eastwards towards the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 2.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (22 August – 4 September 2022)

Issued: 19 August 2022
First forecast week: 22 August – 28 August
Second forecast week: 29 August – 4 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (22 August – 4 September). The highest likelihood for wetter conditions is over areas between the equator and 5°S.

Drier conditions are expected in Week 1 (22 – 28 August) over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. These drier conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (29 August – 4 September), apart from over coastal regions of Myanmar.

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (22 August – 4 September), in line with the wetter conditions. In Week 1 (22 – 28 August), warmer than usual temperature is predicted over northern Mainland Southeast Asia.

There was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal during the middle of August based on the RMM Index. Most models predict an MJO signal to develop in Week 1 over Africa (Phase 1) or the Indian Ocean (Phase 2), propagating eastwards towards the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) in Week 2.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.