Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

In Week 1 (22 – 28 July), wetter conditions are predicted over most of northern Mainland Southeast Asia. In Week 2 (29 July – 4 August), drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northern and central Philippines.

Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region in Week 1 (22 – 28 July), while wetter conditions are predicted over this region in Week 2 (29 July – 4 August).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (22 July – 4 August).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during mid-July based on the RMM index. While most models predict this signal to decay and become indiscernible during the forecast period, some models predict the signal to propagate to Phase 6 (Western Pacific) during Week 1 of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

In Week 1 (22 – 28 July), wetter conditions are predicted over most of northern Mainland Southeast Asia. In Week 2 (29 July – 4 August), drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northern and central Philippines.

Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region in Week 1 (22 – 28 July), while wetter conditions are predicted over this region in Week 2 (29 July – 4 August).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (22 July – 4 August).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during mid-July based on the RMM index. While most models predict this signal to decay and become indiscernible during the forecast period, some models predict the signal to propagate to Phase 6 (Western Pacific) during Week 1 of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.