Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (24 August – 6 September 2020)

Issued 21 August 2020
First forecast week: 24 August – 30 August
Second forecast week: 31 August – 6 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
In the first week (24 – 30 August), wetter conditions are predicted around the equatorial region. The wetter conditions are expected to spread further southwards in the second week (31 August – 6 September). For the northern part of Southeast Asia, drier conditions are predicted for the fortnight, with higher likelihood in the first week.

Warmer conditions are expected during the fortnight over most parts of Southeast Asia except for the western Maritime Continent (parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo), corresponding to the rainfall outlook.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal recently emerged in Western Hemisphere (Phase 8). Models predict the MJO to propagate eastwards towards Africa and the Indian Ocean during the fortnight.

 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (24 August – 6 September 2020)

Issued 21 August 2020
First forecast week: 24 August – 30 August
Second forecast week: 31 August – 6 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
In the first week (24 – 30 August), wetter conditions are predicted around the equatorial region. The wetter conditions are expected to spread further southwards in the second week (31 August – 6 September). For the northern part of Southeast Asia, drier conditions are predicted for the fortnight, with higher likelihood in the first week.

Warmer conditions are expected during the fortnight over most parts of Southeast Asia except for the western Maritime Continent (parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo), corresponding to the rainfall outlook.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal recently emerged in Western Hemisphere (Phase 8). Models predict the MJO to propagate eastwards towards Africa and the Indian Ocean during the fortnight.

 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.