Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (30 November – 13 December 2020)

Issued 27 November 2020
First forecast week: 30 November – 6 December
Second forecast week: 7 December – 13 November

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

An increased chance of wetter conditions is predicted over parts of northern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (30 November – 13 December), in particular central and southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand and northern Philippines. A higher likelihood of wetter conditions is also predicted around the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region in the first week (30 November – 6 December).

Cooler temperatures than usual are predicted over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (30 November – 13 December), with a higher confidence in the first week (30 November – 6 December). An increased chance of warmer conditions is predicted over parts of central Sumatra and Borneo in the first week (30 November – 6 December).

Current MJO signal is weak. The dynamical models are inconsistent regarding the MJO development in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (30 November – 13 December 2020)

Issued 27 November 2020
First forecast week: 30 November – 6 December
Second forecast week: 7 December – 13 November

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

An increased chance of wetter conditions is predicted over parts of northern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (30 November – 13 December), in particular central and southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand and northern Philippines. A higher likelihood of wetter conditions is also predicted around the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the equatorial region in the first week (30 November – 6 December).

Cooler temperatures than usual are predicted over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (30 November – 13 December), with a higher confidence in the first week (30 November – 6 December). An increased chance of warmer conditions is predicted over parts of central Sumatra and Borneo in the first week (30 November – 6 December).

Current MJO signal is weak. The dynamical models are inconsistent regarding the MJO development in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.