Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (5 – 11 February). In Week 2 (12– 18 February), drier conditions are predicted over parts of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (5 – 18 February).

Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of February based on the RMM index. Most models predict this MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific in the first week of the forecast period. While most models agree on the decay of the signal in the second week, the location is uncertain.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (5 – 11 February). In Week 2 (12– 18 February), drier conditions are predicted over parts of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western and central Maritime Continent in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (5 – 18 February).

Cooler than usual temperature is predicted over parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (12 – 18 February).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of February based on the RMM index. Most models predict this MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific in the first week of the forecast period. While most models agree on the decay of the signal in the second week, the location is uncertain.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.