seasonal forecast for January, February, March

Updated 19 January 2018

The Northeast Monsoon season is forecast to extend into March, with prevailing winds in the region blowing from the northwest or northeast. An increase in hotspot activities can be expected as the traditional dry season becomes established in the Mekong sub-region.

In the southern ASEAN region, wet weather conditions are expected for the next few months over most parts of the region. This would help subdue hotspot activities, especially in the fire-prone provinces of Sumatra and Kalimantan., mostly over southern Sumatra, the southern and would bring moderate to heavy shower activities to most parts of the region. The wet weather would help to subdue hotspot activities.

In the second week of December 2017, below-normal rainfall is expected for most parts of the Mekong sub-region. A monsoon surge can be expected over the South China Sea and the surrounding region, and could bring a few days of cooler temperatures, occasionally windy conditions and widespread moderate to heavy rain to the southern Southeast Asian countries. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for the northern parts of Borneo, central and southern Philippines. In the third week of December, drier than usual conditions will prevail for most parts of the equatorial region, including Sumatra and Borneo. Near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for the northern ASEAN region. In the last week of December, near-normal rainfall is expected for the western parts of the Maritime Continent. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for the Philippines and rainfall is likely to be below-normal for the eastern parts of southern ASEAN region.

In the third week of January, above-normal rainfall is expected over the Philippines, Peninsula Malaysia, and the eastern parts of the southern ASEAN region (around Papau and the Lesser Sunda Islands). Over the southern parts of Sumatra and Borneo, and parts of the Mekong sub-region, normal to below-normal rainfall are expected. In the last week of January, above-normal rainfall is expected over the southern ASEAN region, and normal to below normal rainfall for the northern ASEAN region.

For the January-February-March season, slightly above-normal rainfall is expected for the Philippines. Near-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the Mekong sub-region during the season, except for Thailand where slightly-below normal rainfall is expected in January and February, and slightly above-normal in March. For the southern ASEAN region, near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall is expected. The rainfall outlook for January, February and March 2018 are shown in the figures below.

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  • Legend
  • Above Normal
    (67th to 100th percentile)
  • Slightly Above Normal
    (50th to 83rd percentile)
  • Normal
    (33rd to 67th percentile)
  • Slightly Below Normal
    (17th to 50rd percentile)
  • Below Normal
    (0 to 33rd percentile)