seasonal forecast for February, March, April
Updated 10 March 2017
For the March-April-May season, Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to persist over the ASEAN region until late March 2017. During this period, dry weather conditions will continue to persist over the northern ASEAN region. Hotspot activities are likely to escalate and vigilance should therefore be maintained for any escalation in hotspot activities in the fire-prone area.
In late March or early April, the Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to transit into the Inter-monsoon conditions, and an increase in shower activities are expected to alleviate the hotspot situation in the northern ASEAN region. However, occasional isolated hotspot activities can still be expected during brief periods of dry weather conditions.
In the southern ASEAN region, wet weather conditions are likely to persist over most parts of Indonesia until the end of March 2017. As the Northeast Monsoon season gradually gives way to the onset of the Inter Monsoon conditions, the monsoon rain band will migrate northward and bring increased rainfall over the near-equatorial region. The prevailing north-easterly monsoonal winds are expected to weaken and becoming light and variable.
In the second and third week of March 2017, with the southward propagation of cold dry air from northern continental Asia towards the equatorial region, drier than usual weather conditions are expected over the equatorial region. During the same period, wetter-than-usual conditions are forecast near the Philippines and the surrounding vicinity. Towards the end of the March 2017, normal rainfall conditions are expected for the ASEAN region.
For the March-April-May 2017 season, slightly above-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for the Mekong Sub-region. In March and May 2017, slightly above-normal to above-normal rainfall are forecast particularly for the central and northern parts of the Philippines. In the southern ASEAN region, near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall is expected to prevail for Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Sumatra and Kalimantan. In Java, slightly below-normal to near-normal rainfall is expected.
- Above Normal
(67th to 100th percentile)
- Slightly Above Normal
(50th to 83rd percentile)
(33rd to 67th percentile)
- Slightly Below Normal
(17th to 50rd percentile)
- Below Normal
(0 to 33rd percentile)