Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 30 April 2020)

Issued 14 April 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 30 April 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For the second fortnight of April 2020, drier conditions are expected to persist over Thailand, Cambodia, southern parts of Laos, southern parts of Viet Nam, southern parts of Myanmar, and most parts of the Philippines. Drier conditions are also forecasted to persist over northern Borneo, although these conditions may ease in Week 4 tied to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity.

There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over western parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 4 (northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, and eastern Borneo), associated with the same MJO signal.

For temperature in Week 3, warmer conditions are expected over most of Southeast Asia, apart from northern Myanmar and northern Viet Nam. These warmer conditions are expected to persist in Week 4, although the warmer conditions may ease in the equatorial part of the region.

An MJO is currently present over Africa and is expected to propagate eastward through the Indian Ocean during Week 3 and Week 4. However, a few models forecast the signal to weaken towards the end of April.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 30 April 2020)

Issued 14 April 2020
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 – 30 April 2020

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For the second fortnight of April 2020, drier conditions are expected to persist over Thailand, Cambodia, southern parts of Laos, southern parts of Viet Nam, southern parts of Myanmar, and most parts of the Philippines. Drier conditions are also forecasted to persist over northern Borneo, although these conditions may ease in Week 4 tied to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity.

There is an increased chance of wetter conditions over western parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 4 (northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, and eastern Borneo), associated with the same MJO signal.

For temperature in Week 3, warmer conditions are expected over most of Southeast Asia, apart from northern Myanmar and northern Viet Nam. These warmer conditions are expected to persist in Week 4, although the warmer conditions may ease in the equatorial part of the region.

An MJO is currently present over Africa and is expected to propagate eastward through the Indian Ocean during Week 3 and Week 4. However, a few models forecast the signal to weaken towards the end of April.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.