Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Dry conditions prevailed over many parts of the northern ASEAN region today. Scattered hotspots were detected in Myanmar, while few to isolated hotspots were detected elsewhere in the Mekong sub-region. Moderate to dense smoke plumes were observed over the northern and central parts of Myanmar. Showers over the central and southern parts of the Mekong sub- region have helped to provide some relief to the hotspot and smoke haze situation there. Due to cloud cover, the full extent of the hotspot and smoke haze situation in the Mekong sub-region could not be determined.

Showers were observed over most parts of the southern ASEAN region today, except over the central parts of Sumatra and the central parts of Peninsular Malaysia where conditions were drier. Few hotspots were detected mainly in central Sumatra and West Kalimantan. No significant smoke plumes were observed from recent satellite imagery. Due to cloud cover, the full extent of the hotspot and smoke haze situation in the southern ASEAN region could not be determined.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Over the next few days, dry weather is expected to persist over the northern and western parts of the Mekong sub-region, while showers are expected elsewhere in the sub-region which continue to bring some respite to the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation in these areas. However, the hotspot and haze situation is likely to remain elevated over the fire-prone areas in the Mekong sub-region experiencing prolonged dry weather, with a risk of transboundary haze occurrence. Dry conditions are forecast to return to most of the sub-region over the weekend and the situation could escalate again. The prevailing winds over the northern ASEAN region are expected to blow from the southeast to southwest, except for the Mekong sub- region where the prevailing winds are weak and variable in directions.

For the southern ASEAN region, wet weather is forecast over most parts of the region in the coming days, except over the central parts of Sumatra and the western parts of Borneo where it is expected to be drier. Isolated hotspots and smoke plumes may still develop in areas experiencing brief periods of drier weather. The prevailing winds over the southern ASEAN region are likely to blow from the west or northeast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for February – April 2026

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon prevailed over the ASEAN region, with low-level winds blowing predominantly from the northwest or northeast, and typically persists over the ASEAN region until late March. During this period, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season as the monsoon rainband remains south of the Equator. While showers are typical over the southern ASEAN region during its traditional wet season, this area can experience periods of drier conditions during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, which typically takes place during February to late March. Around late March or early April, the prevailing low-level winds gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction as the Northeast Monsoon transitions into inter-monsoon conditions, when the showers gradually return to the northern ASEAN region.

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northeastern Maritime Continent. For February – April 2026 the above-normal rainfall is predicted to persist, along with below-normal rainfall for much of the central Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February – March 2026. La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent and northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia for FMA 2026.

With near- to below-normal rainfall predicted over the Mekong sub-region during the outlook period, further intensification of hotspots and smoke haze activities, with a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence, can be expected over fire-prone areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions. Over the southern ASEAN region, overall hotspot activity is expected to remain subdued. However, it could increase, with localised smoke plume occurrences, during periods of drier conditions under the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, especially in areas where below-normal rainfall is predicted.

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Recent Updates

26

Feb

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (2 – 15 March 2026)
Over most of the central and eastern equatorial region in Week 1 (2 – 8 March), drier than usual conditions for this time of the year are predicted, along with warmer than usual temperatures. Over much of the northeastern Maritime Continent…
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16

Feb

Regional Climate – El Niño / La Niña
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system state is “La Niña Conditions”. The Nino3.4 index shows the presence of La Niña conditions. Key atmospheric indicators (cloudiness and trade winds in the central Pacific) indicate…
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16

Feb

Review of Regional Haze Situation for January 2026
The Northeast Monsoon continued over the ASEAN region throughout January 2026. The prevailing low-level winds over regions north of the Equator blew mainly from the northeast to east, except over…
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