Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over the equatorial region and parts of the southwestern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (20 July – 2 August).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the western and central Maritime Continent as well as over most of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (20 July – 2 August).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in the first half of July 2026, based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to be over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) or the Western Hemisphere (Phase 8) at the start of Week 1 (20 – 26 July) and then weaken and become indiscernible by the start of Week 2 (27 July – 2 August).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over the equatorial region and parts of the southwestern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (20 July – 2 August).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the western and central Maritime Continent as well as over most of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (20 July – 2 August).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) in the first half of July 2026, based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to be over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) or the Western Hemisphere (Phase 8) at the start of Week 1 (20 – 26 July) and then weaken and become indiscernible by the start of Week 2 (27 July – 2 August).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.