Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (6 – 12 July).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (6 – 19 July). The highest chance of drier conditions is over the central and eastern equatorial region.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over most of central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (13 – 19 July).

There were signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal developing towards the end of June 2026. Most models predict the MJO signal to propagate through the Western Pacific (Phase 6 to Phase 7) during Week 1 (6 – 12 July) and then weaken in Week 2 (13 – 19 July).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (6 – 12 July).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (6 – 19 July). The highest chance of drier conditions is over the central and eastern equatorial region.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over most of central and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (13 – 19 July).

There were signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal developing towards the end of June 2026. Most models predict the MJO signal to propagate through the Western Pacific (Phase 6 to Phase 7) during Week 1 (6 – 12 July) and then weaken in Week 2 (13 – 19 July).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.