Review of Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation for First Fortnight of July 2019
1.1 Under prevailing rainy conditions, no significant hotspot activity was observed in the northern ASEAN region. In the southern ASEAN region, periods of dry weather led to an increase in hotspot activities, particularly over Sumatra and Kalimantan where isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes were detected (Figures 1 and 2).
Figure 1: Himawari-8 satellite image on 15 July 2019 shows localised smoke plumes from hotspots detected in West Kalimantan.
Figure 2: Himawari-8 satellite image on 10 July 2019 shows localised smoke plumes from hotspots detected in Sumatra.
Review of Regional Weather Conditions for First Fortnight of July 2019
Review of Regional Weather Conditions for First Fortnight of July 2019
1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for First Fortnight of July 2019
1.1 In the first fortnight of July 2019, moderate to strong southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed over the northern ASEAN region. In particular, anomalously strong southwesterly winds were observed to the east of Viet Nam during the first half of the fortnight under the influence of Tropical Storm Mun (Figure 2). In the southern ASEAN region, the prevailing winds blew mainly from the southeast or southwest, with wind anomalies observed west of Sumatra. Figure 1 shows the average and anomalous winds at 5000 feet.
Figure 1: 5000 ft average winds (left) and anomalies (right) for 1 – 15 July 2019. (Source: JMA)
Figure 2: Track for Tropical Storm Mun (2-4 Jul 2019).
1.2 Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed in the first half of July 2019. Much of the northern ASEAN region received above-average rainfall except for northern Philippines and Thailand. In the southern ASEAN region, below-average rainfall was observed over many areas (Figures 3 and 4).
Figure 3: Daily average rainfall for the ASEAN region in the first fortnight of July 2019. (Source: JAXA Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)
Figure 4: Percent of average rainfall for 1 – 15 July 2019. The rainfall data may be less representative for areas with a less dense rainfall network. (Source: IRI NOAA/NCEP CPC Unified Precipitation Analyses)
1.3 Throughout the first fortnight of July 2019, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Western Hemisphere and Africa, and it did not significantly influence the weather over the ASEAN region (Figure 5).
Figure 5: The MJO phase diagram for Jul 2019 (blue). The diagram illustrates the movement of the MJO through different phases, which correspond to different locations along the equator. The distance of the index from the centre of the diagram is correlated with the strength of MJO. When the index falls within the circle, the MJO is considered weak or indiscernible. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)
1.4 The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). While the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies were slightly above average across the tropical Pacific Ocean Nino 3.4 region, other atmospheric indicators continued to show neutral conditions.
July 22, 2019
3rd Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring (26-28 Jun 2019, Singapore)
Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Southern ASEAN region
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted a workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Land/Forest Fires and Transboundary Haze for the southern ASEAN region in Singapore on 26 – 28 June 2019. Participants from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors of Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand took part in the workshop.
ASMC engages with users from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors in region through various means, including the conduct of customised training workshops.
In her welcome address, ASMC Director of Operations, Ms Patricia Ee emphasised the Centre’s commitment to serve the region as the ASEAN centre for monitoring, assessment and early warning of fires and transboundary smoke haze, and the need for collaboration among ASEAN Members to address land/forest fires and transboundary haze pollution issues.
The ASMC trainers shared on basic meteorology, remote sensing technologies, weather and climate prediction, as well as haze modelling tools. Case studies and exercises were incorporated so that participants could apply what they have learnt and acquire practical hands-on experience with the assistance of the trainer. The participants also visited an Air Quality Monitoring station and the ASMC operations centre.
Participants on a tour of the ASMC operational facilities (left) and an air quality monitoring station in Singapore (right). They were given a brief on how the Centre conducts monitoring and assessment of regional haze situation using the latest satellite technologies and numerical modelling tools.
Ms Haryanti Petra from the Brunei Department of Environment, Parks and Recreation commended the wide range of topics covered in the workshop and noted that the hands–on exercises and activities to assess hotspots and transboundary haze on satellite images were useful.
This training workshop was conducted as part of the 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme rolled out by the ASMC in 2018, aimed to benefit ASEAN Member States through the sharing of technical knowledge and skills. Under the Programme, ASMC is investing S$5 million to enhance its efforts in capability building covering four key priority areas, viz weather forecasting, sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, climate change projections and haze monitoring.
July 12, 2019
Outlook for Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation (16 – 31 July 2019)
Outlook for Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation (16 – 31 July 2019)
Issued 12 July 2019
The northern ASEAN region is currently in its traditional rainy season which will prevail for the next few months. With wet conditions predicted for the northern ASEAN region in the second fortnight of July 2019, hotspot activities there are expected to be generally subdued. In the southern ASEAN region, drier-than-usual conditions are expected during the outlook period. This could contribute to an increase in hotspot activities in the fire-prone provinces of Sumatra and Kalimantan, and increase the risk of occurrence of transboundary haze in the region.
Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 July 2019)
Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 31 July 2019)
Issued 12 July 2019
Valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 July – 31 July
In the second fortnight of July 2019, wetter-than-average conditions can be expected over southern half of the northern ASEAN region, including the northern half of the Philippines. In the first week of this fortnight, warmer-than-average conditions are predicted over Myanmar and Thailand as well as over Lao PDR. Drier-than-average conditions are expected over the southern ASEAN region except for northern Sumatra and Peninsula Malaysia where average rainfall are predicted.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
July 8, 2019
Review of Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation for Second Fortnight of June 2019
Review of Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation for Second Fortnight of June 2019
1.1 In the second half of June 2019, hotspot activities in the Mekong sub-region were generally subdued due to rainy weather.
1.2 In the southern ASEAN region, dry weather prevailed over Sumatra and Kalimantan. An increase in hotspot activities were observed toward the end of the fortnight, and occasional smoke plumes were detected in parts of Sumatra and West Kalimantan on a few days.
Figure 1: Isolated hotspots detected in West Kalimantan based on NOAA-20 on 26 Jul 2019.
Figure 2: Isolated hotspots detected in Sumatra based on image from NOAA-20 satellite on 27 Jun 2019.
Review of Regional Weather Conditions for Second Fortnight of June 2019
Review of Regional Weather Conditions for Second Fortnight of June 2019
1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for Second Fortnight of June 2019
1.1 In the second fortnight of June 2019, moderate to strong southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed over the northern ASEAN region. In the southern ASEAN region, winds continued to blow from the southeast or southwest. No significant wind anomalies were observed during this period.
Figure 1: 5000 ft average winds (left) and anomalies (right) for 16 – 30 June 2019. (Source: JMA)
1.2 In the second half of June 2019, the monsoon rain band brought widespread showers over parts of the northern ASEAN region, in particular over the coastal regions. In the southern ASEAN region, most of the rain/showers fell over the equatorial region including Malaysia, Sumatra and Kalimantan. Over Java and the southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, dry weather prevailed and rainfall was below-average.
Figure 2: Daily average rainfall for the ASEAN region in the second fortnight of June 2019. (Source: JAXA Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)
Figure 3: Percent of average rainfall for 16 – 30 June 2019. The rainfall data may be less representative for areas with a less dense rainfall network. (Source: IRI NOAA/NCEP CPC Unified Precipitation Analyses)
1.3 In the early half of the fortnight, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Maritime Continent but weakened in the later part of the fortnight. There were no clear MJO signals during the period as shown in Figure 4.
1.4 The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the neutral state. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained slightly warmer than average in the central eastern Pacific.
Figure 4: The MJO phase diagram for June 2019 (green). The diagram illustrates the movement of the MJO through different phases, which correspond to different locations along the equator. The distance of the index from the centre of the diagram is correlated with the strength of MJO. When the index falls within the circle, the MJO is generally considered weak or indiscernible. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology)
July 2, 2019
Alert20190702 – Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region
Start of dry season for the southern ASEAN region
In the past few days, drier weather conditions were observed over many parts of the region, particularly in the southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Isolated hotspots, occasionally with localised smoke plumes, were detected in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Peninsular Malaysia. Based on surveillance by the NOAA-19 satellite, 2 and 6 hotspots were detected in Sumatra, and 3 and 0 hotspots were detected in Kalimatan on 30 June and 1 July 2019 respectively
The prevailing Southwest Monsoon is expected to persist until October 2019. Extended periods of dry weather can be expected occasionally, and this can lead to an increase in hotspot activities in the fire-prone areas.
Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 July 2019)
Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 15 July 2019)
Issued 2 July 2019
Valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 July – 15 July
For the first fortnight of July 2019, drier-than-average conditions are expected over parts of the southern ASEAN region, including the southern parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, and Java. Wetter-than-average conditions may develop over parts of eastern Maritime Continent and eastern Mekong sub-region in Week 1.
Warmer-than-average conditions present over the inland parts of the northern ASEAN region are expected to ease.
There is currently no significant Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal present. For the first fortnight of July 2019, there are no consistent signs of an MJO re-developing.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Outlook for Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation (1 – 15 July 2019)
Outlook for Land Fires and Smoke Haze Situation (1 – 15 Jul 2019)
Issued 2 July 2019
In the southern ASEAN region, an increase in hotspot activities can be expected in the fire-prone provinces of Sumatra and Kalimantan with dry weather persisting. This may contribute to an increase in the risk of occurrence of transboundary haze occurrence. Hotspot activities in the Mekong sub-region are expected to remain subdued due to rainy weather.