Monthly Archives: May 2023

May 29, 2023

Alert20230529 – Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region

Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region

Southwest Monsoon conditions have been gradually established over the southern ASEAN region, with the prevailing winds blowing predominantly from the southeast or southwest. Over the past week, dry weather persisted over many parts of the region, and isolated hotspots with occasional smoke plumes were observed. Based on surveillance by the NOAA-20 satellite, a total of 14 and 13 hotspots were detected in the southern ASEAN region on 27 and 28 May 2023, respectively.

Over the next several months, extended periods of dry weather can be expected over many parts of the southern ASEAN region. The likely return of El Niño conditions in the second half of the year will further exacerbate the dry season, and extending it into October 2023. An escalation in hotspot activity and smoke haze development can be expected during this period, with an increased risk of transboundary haze occurrence.

ASMC Media Release – Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region

Events – Start of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN region – 2023

 

MEDIA RELEASE
 

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN ASEAN REGION

 

Singapore, 29 May 2023 – The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has issued Alert Level 1 today, indicating the start of the dry season associated with the Southwest Monsoon in the southern ASEAN region. Persistent drier weather has been observed over most parts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and southern Thailand in recent days, as the monsoon rain band moves north of the Equator. With a high likelihood of El Niño1 conditions developing in the coming months, the dry season is expected to be more intense and prolonged compared to recent years, and extend into October 2023.

2 Presently, hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are still subdued with 14 and 13 hotspots detected in the southern ASEAN region on 27 May 2023 and 28 May 2023 respectively. A few localised smoke plumes were detected in parts of the region on some days in May 2023, but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.

3 Since earlier this year, warmer subsurface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is an early sign that support El Niño conditions developing in the next few months. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole2 , which suppresses cloud formation over certain parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, may develop in the next one to two months. Both climate phenomena typically bring drier and warmer conditions to many parts of the southern ASEAN region.

4 ASMC assesses that there is a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze occurrence in the southern ASEAN region between June and October 2023, compared to the last three years when the dry season was moderated by prolonged La Niña conditions. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region.

5 For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.
 
 
[1] El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with changes in both the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, including an abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Typically lasting 9-12 months and occurring every three to five years, it produces widespread and at times severe changes in the global climate.
[2] The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is similar to the El Niño, but occurs in the equatorial Indian Ocean and of shorter duration, typically ending by December-January. The IOD varies between three phases – positive, negative and neutral.
 

– End –

May 26, 2023

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 May – 11 June 2023)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (29 May – 11 June 2023)

Issued: 26 May 2023
First forecast week: 29 May 2023 – 4 June 2023
Second forecast week: 5 June 2023 – 11 June 2023

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (29 May – 4 June). These wetter conditions are predicted to extend northwards over parts of central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (5 – 11 June). Wetter conditions are also predicted over much of the Philippines in the next fortnight (29 May – 11 June).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region in Week 1 (29 May – 4 June). These drier conditions are predicted to ease during Week 2 (5 – 11 June).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region during the next fortnight (29 May – 11 June), in line with the predicted drier conditions. Warmer conditions are also predicted over the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (29 May – 4 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in the second half of May. Most models predict this MJO signal to decay in Phases 7 or 8 during Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

May 24, 2023

Alert20230524 – End of Dry Season for the Mekong Sub-Region

End of Dry Season for the Mekong Sub-Region

In recent days, more persistent and widespread rainfall was observed across the Mekong sub-region, which kept the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation subdued. Based on surveillance by the NOAA-20 satellite, a total of 169 and 86 hotspots were detected in the sub-region on 22 and 23 May 2023, respectively.

With the Southwest Monsoon firmly established, continued shower activities are forecast over most parts of the Mekong sub-region in the coming months. Hotspot and smoke haze activities are likely to remain suppressed during this period.

May 16, 2023

Review of Regional Weather for April 2023

Review of Regional Weather for April 2023

 

1. Overview

1.1 During April 2023, below- to near-average rainfall was recorded over Mainland Southeast Asia, with a mix of below- to above-average rainfall over the Maritime Continent. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall was recorded over most of the central and southern part of the region with the largest negative anomalies (drier conditions) over southern Thailand. Elsewhere in Mainland Southeast Asia, the rainfall was near-average. Over the Maritime Continent, the largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were recorded over southern Sumatra with the largest negative anomalies over parts of Borneo for both the GSMaP-NRT (Figure 1, left) and CMORPH-Blended (Figure 1, right) satellite-derived rainfall estimates.

1.2 The observed rainfall anomaly pattern of below- to near-average rainfall over Mainland Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall over central Maritime Continent , and no widespread regional anomalies elsewhere over the Maritime Continent, is broadly consistent with the predictions from the subseasonal weather outlooks for April 2023 (3 – 16 April 2023 and 17 – 30 April 2023).

era5_rainfall_anomalies
cmorph_bld_rainfall_anomalies
Figure 1: Rainfall anomalies for April 2023 based on GSMaP-NRT data (left) and CMORPH-Blended data (right). The climatological reference period is 2001-2022. Green colour denotes above-average rainfall (wetter), while orange denotes below-average rainfall (drier).

 

1.3 Above-average temperatures were recorded over most of Mainland Southeast Asia, with near- to above-average temperature over most of the Maritime Continent. The warmest anomalies (more than 2 °C above-average) were recorded over parts of Lao PDR and northern Thailand.

era5_temperature_anomalies

 

Figure 2: Temperature anomalies for April 2023 based on ERA-5 reanalysis. The climatological reference period is 2001-2022. Red colour denotes above-average temperature (warmer), while blue denotes below-average temperature (colder).

 

2. Climate Drivers

2.1 The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was active during April 2023. An MJO signal propagated eastwards from the Maritime Continent (Phase 5), reaching the Western Hemisphere (Phases 8 and 1) during third week of April, and then just entering again the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) at the end of the month. Typically for April, Phases 7, 8, and 1 bring drier conditions to the Southeast Asia, while Phases 3 to 5 bring wetter conditions, particularly in southern Southeast Asia.

mjo_phase_diagram
Figure 3: The MJO phase diagram. The diagram illustrates the movement of the MJO through different phases, which correspond to different locations along the equator (denoted in the text with the first day of the month in blue and the last day of the month in red). The distance of the index from the centre of the diagram is related to the strength of the MJO. Values within the grey circle are considered weak or indiscernible (data from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia).

 

2.2 The tropical Pacific was in an ENSO neutral state during April. Overall, sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region (used to monitor ENSO) and the atmospheric indicators over the tropical Pacific Ocean indicated neutral conditions.

 

May 15, 2023

ASMC Annual Report 2022/2023

ASMC Annual Report 2022/2023

May 12, 2023

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (15 – 28 May 2023)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (15 – 28 May 2023)

Issued: 12 May 2023
First forecast week: 15 May 2023 – 21 May 2023
Second forecast week: 22 May 2023 – 28 May 2023

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Drier conditions are predicted over most of the central Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (15 – 28 May). Drier conditions are also predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (15 – 21 May). Wetter conditions are predicted over most parts of the Philippines in Week 2 (22 – 28 May).

Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the western Maritime Continent in Week 1 (15 – 21 May). These warmer conditions are predicted to gradually ease during Week 2 (22 – 28 May). Over much of the eastern Maritime Continent, warmer than usual temperature is predicted during Week 2.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in the first week of May. Most models predict this MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

May 9, 2023

Alert20230509 – Downgrade to Alert Level 1 for the Mekong Sub-Region

Downgrade to Alert Level 1 for the Mekong Sub-Region

With an increase in shower activities over many parts of the Mekong sub-region in recent days, there has been further improvement to the overall hotspot and haze situation in the sub-region. Based on surveillance by the NOAA-20 satellite, a total of 500 and 123 hotspots were detected in the sub-region on 7 and 8 May 2023, respectively.

In the coming days, more showers are expected over the Mekong sub-region. Some areas in the northern and western parts of the sub-region may still experience brief periods of drier weather and hotspot activity. However, the risk of transboundary haze is assessed to be low due to rainy conditions and prevailing winds that are generally light and variable in direction.

May 5, 2023

Review of Regional Haze Situation for April 2023

Review of Regional Haze Situation for April 2023

1.1 The Northeast Monsoon conditions gradually gave way to the inter-monsoon as the monsoon rainband shifted northwards towards the Equator in April 2023. The prevailing winds over the Mekong sub-region blew mostly from the southeast or southwest. For the rest of ASEAN region, the prevailing winds were light and variable in direction except over the Philippines where the prevailing winds blew from the northeast or east (Figure 1).

1.2 The prevailing dry conditions over the Mekong sub-region persisted for most of April 2023, although some showers returned over parts of the sub-region towards the end of the month. While wet weather was generally observed over the rest of the ASEAN region, it was dry over the Philippines. Parts of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo also experienced brief period of drier conditions during the period (Figure 1).

 

Figure 1: Average Daily Rainfall and Mean Winds for April 2023. (Source: JAXA GsMaP and GFS, respectively)

 

1.3 Under the influence of the prolonged dry conditions, the hotspots counts in the Mekong sub-region during the review period were mostly higher compared to the previous years. In particular, the hotspot counts for Lao PDR and Myanmar in April 2023 were the highest in 5 years (Figure 2). In the southern ASEAN region, the hotspot counts were generally lower than or comparable to the previous years except for Kalimantan where hotspot counts were slightly higher than the previous years (Figure 3).

 

Figure 2: Hotspot counts for the northern ASEAN region for the month of April (2019 – 2023) based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 3: Hotspot counts for the southern ASEAN region for the month of April (2019 – 2023) based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

1.4 The elevated hotspot and smoke haze activity persisted over the Mekong sub-region for most of April 2023. Scattered to widespread hotspots were detected over may parts of the sub-region. In particular, clusters of hotspots were persistent and more intense (Figure 5) over parts of Myanmar as well as the northern parts of Thailand and the northern and central parts of Lao PDR. The return of the showers helped to alleviate the hotspot situation towards the end of the month. Elsewhere in the ASEAN region, isolated hotpots were detected in the Philippines, Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo but most of them were short-lived (Figure 4).

 

Figure 4: Distribution of hotspots detected in March 2023 based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 5: Maximum fire intensity in March 2023 based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

1.5 Widespread moderate to dense transboundary smoke haze was observed to blanket the eastern parts of Myanmar as well as the northern parts of Thailand, Lao PDR and Viet Nam on many days of the month. Moderate to dense smoke haze was also observed on many days over the northern, western and central parts of Myanmar (Figure 6 & 7). Moderate smoke haze was observed over the central parts of Thailand on some days of the month (Figure 6 & 8). In view of the improving hotspot and smoke haze situation with the return of shower activities towards the end of the month, the Alert Level for the Mekong sub-region was downgraded from Alert Level 3 to Alert Level 2 on 24 April 2023. For the southern ASEAN region, localized smoke plumes were observed to emit from isolated hotspots along the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra on some days during brief drier periods.

 

Figure 6: Number of days with moderate to dense smoke haze observed in March 2023 based on satellite imagery, ground observations, and air quality reports.

 

Figure 7: Dense smoke haze observed over Myanmar as well as the northern parts of Thailand, Lao PDR and Viet Nam on 14 April 2023, based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 8: Moderate smoke haze observed over the central parts of Thailand on 17 April 2023, based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

May 4, 2023

ASMC Attachment Programme

ASMC Attachment Programme, March – April 2023

The first run of the ASMC Attachment Programme kicked off in in March 2023. Two officers from the Mekong sub-region, Ms Khaing Yi Mon Lin from Myanmar and Mr Pankham Soundala from Lao PDR were attached to the ASMC Operations Centre for a 6-to-8-week period during the northern ASEAN dry season. Together with ASMC staff, they were involved in the preparation of the daily weather and haze assessment and outlook for the ASEAN region, and familiarised with the regional weather, satellite data and numerical weather prediction tools. During their attachment, they also conducted a data analysis study on the hotspots and haze conditions in their home country and performed real-time analysis of the evolving haze situation in the Mekong sub-region. Using ASMC hotspot and haze coverage geospatial data, they assessed the siting of air quality monitoring stations, and conducted a comparison of hotspot persistency with their national land coverage information.

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: (left) Attachment programme participants taking part in the daily discussion on the regional weather and haze situation. (right) A familiarisation with ASMC’s satellite reception facilities.

Figure 1: