Monthly Archives: March 2024

March 6, 2024

Alert20240306 – Activation of Alert Level 3 for Mekong sub-region

Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Mekong sub-region

The hotspot and smoke haze situation over the Mekong sub-region has further deteriorated in recent days under prolonged dry weather. Based on satellite surveillance, a total of 1625 and 2004 hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region, mainly in Myanmar and Lao PDR, on 4 and 5 March 2024 respectively from the NOAA-20 satellite. Widespread moderate to dense transboundary smoke haze was observed across eastern Myanmar, northern Thailand, and parts of Lao PDR and Viet Nam. Localised smoke plumes were also observed to emanate from isolated hotspots elsewhere in the Mekong sub-region.

In the next few days, the prevailing winds over the Mekong sub-region are expected to blow mainly from the southwest or northwest. The current dry weather conditions are forecast to continue, except for some showers in the southern and eastern parts of the sub-region. Hotspot and smoke haze activities are likely to intensify under such conditions, with increased occurrences of transboundary haze.

March 1, 2024

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (4 – 17 March 2024)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (4 – 17 March 2024)

Issued: 1 March 2024
First forecast week: 4 – 10 March 2024
Second forecast week: 11 – 17 March 2024

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

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Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For much of the equatorial region, wetter conditions are predicted in Week 1 (4 – 10 March), followed by drier conditions in Week 2 (11 – 17 March).

Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March). Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (4 – 17 March).

No discernable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present towards the end of February based on the RMM index. Models predict an MJO signal to develop in the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) by the start of the forecast period, propagating through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) during Week 1. Most models predict the MJO signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phase 6) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.