Monthly Archives: May 2024

May 23, 2024

Alert20240523 – End of Dry Season for the Mekong Sub-Region

End of Dry Season for the Mekong Sub-Region

Wet weather conditions were observed to persist over the Mekong sub-region in recent days, which have kept the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation over the sub-region subdued. Based on the NOAA-20 satellite surveillance, a total of 16 and 26 hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region on 21 and 22 May 2024 respectively.

As the shower activities are forecast to continue over most parts of the Mekong sub-region in the coming months, the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation in the Mekong sub-region is expected to remain suppressed.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 May – 9 June 2024)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 May – 9 June 2024)

Issued: 23 May 2024
First forecast week: 27 May – 2 June 2024
Second forecast week: 3 – 9 June 2024

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (27 May – 2 June).

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the western Maritime Continent in Week 2 (3 – 9 June).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and the southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (27 May – 9 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in the third week of May based on the RMM index. Most models predict this signal to propagate eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 1, before weakening and becoming inactive in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

ASMC Annual Report (2023/2024)

ASMC Annual Report (2023/2024)

May 17, 2024

Review of Regional Weather for April 2024

Review of Regional Weather for April 2024

 

1. Overview

1.1 During April 2024, much of the northern ASEAN region experienced below-average rainfall, while much of the southern ASEAN region experienced above-average rainfall (Figure 1). Based on both GSMaP-NRT (Figure 1, left) and CMORPH-Blended (Figure 1, right) satellite-derived rainfall estimates, below-average rainfall was recorded over much of the northern ASEAN region, as well as the western Maritime Continent and parts of Borneo. The largest negative (drier) anomalies were recorded over southern Thailand, Cambodia, and parts of central Borneo. In contrast, most of the southern ASEAN region experience near- to above-average rainfall, although GSMaP-NRT shows larger positive (wetter) anomalies over Java and Sulawesi (Figure 1, left) compared to CMORPH-Blended (Figure 1, right).

1.2 The observed rainfall anomaly pattern of below-average rainfall over much of the northern ASEAN region and above-average rainfall over the southern ASEAN region is consistent with the predictions from the subseasonal weather outlooks for April 2024 (1 – 14 April 2024 and 15 – 28 April 2024).

era5_rainfall_anomalies
cmorph_bld_rainfall_anomalies
Figure 1: Rainfall anomalies for April 2024 based on GSMaP-NRT data (left) and CMORPH-Blended data (right). The climatological reference period is 2001-2023. Green colour denotes above-average rainfall (wetter), while orange denotes below-average rainfall (drier).

 

1.3 Above-average temperatures were recorded over the ASEAN region in April 2024 (Figure 2). The warmest anomalies (more than 3°C above average) were recorded over eastern Thailand, parts of Lao PDR, and northern and central Viet Nam. Based on ERA-5 reanalysis, the April 2024 was one of the warmest on record, with temperatures for most of the region in the top 10% warmest values for April.

era5_temperature_anomalies
Figure 2: Temperature anomalies for April 2024 based on ERA-5 reanalysis. The climatological reference period is 2001-2023. Red colour denotes above-average temperature (warmer), while blue denotes below-average temperature (colder).

 

2. Climate Drivers

2.1 The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was inactive for much of April 2024, based on the RMM index (Figure 3). In the first week of April, an MJO signal propagated eastwards through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3). The signal reached the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) at the start of week 2, after which point the signal rapidly weakened and became indiscernible. It was not until the last week of April when there were signs of an MJO signal again developing over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3). For April, Phase 2 tends to bring wetter conditions for the western Maritime Continent, while Phase 3 tends to bring wetter conditions to the southern ASEAN region.

mjo_phase_diagram

 

Figure 3: The MJO phase diagram. The diagram illustrates the movement of the MJO through different phases, which correspond to different locations along the equator (denoted in the text with the first day of the month in blue and the last day of the month in red). The distance of the index from the centre of the diagram is related to the strength of the MJO. Values within the grey circle are considered weak or indiscernible (data from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia).

 

2.2 El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific continued weakening during April 2024, although still likely contributed to the warmer temperatures observed in Figure 2. At this time of year, warmer temperatures are typical observed when there has been a El Niño event (even if the event is weakening).

 

May 13, 2024

Review of Regional Haze Situation for April 2024

Review of Regional Haze Situation for April 2024

1.1 In April 2024, the prevailing winds over areas near the Equator turned light and variable in direction as the monsoon rainband shifted northwards towards the Equator. This is characterised with the transition of the Northeast Monsoon to the inter-monsoon conditions. Over the northern ASEAN region, the prevailing winds over the Philippines blew mostly from the northeast or east. While the prevailing winds over the northern parts of the Mekong sub-region were light and variable in direction, the prevailing winds over the rest of the sub-region blew mostly from the south or southwest (Figure 1).

1.2 Although some rainfall was observed over the northern, southeastern and central parts of the Mekong sub-region as well as the southern parts of the Philippines on a few days, dry conditions persisted over the northern ASEAN region on most days of the review period. The southern ASEAN region experienced wet weather on most days of the outlook period, except for the eastern parts of Borneo and the northern parts of Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra where conditions were drier (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Average Daily Rainfall and Mean Winds for April 2024. (Source: JAXA GsMaP and GFS, respectively)

 

1.3 During the review period, the hotspot counts over the Mekong sub-region in April 2024 were largely higher or comparable to recent years (Figure 2). Over the southern ASEAN region, hotspot counts for Kalimantan and Malaysia in April 2024 were higher compared to previous years, but still relatively low compared to during the dry season. Elsewhere in the region, the hotspot counts were comparable to previous years (Figure 3).

 

Figure 2: Hotspot counts for the northern ASEAN region for April (2020-2024) based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 3: Hotspot counts for the southern ASEAN region for April (2020-2024) based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

1.4 In April 2024, scattered to widespread hotspots continued to be detected in the Mekong sub-region, with more intense and persistent clusters of hotspots in Lao PDR, various parts of Myanmar, northern Thailand and the northeastern parts of Cambodia (Figure 4 and 5). During most days of the review period, widespread moderate to dense transboundary smoke haze was observed to cover the eastern parts of Myanmar, northern and central parts of Thailand, and the northern parts of Lao PDR and Viet Nam (Figure 6 and 7). Moderate to dense smoke haze was also observed over other parts of Myanmar, Cambodia, and the eastern parts of Thailand (Figure 6). Moderate smoke plumes emanating from the hotspot clusters detected in the southern and central parts of Lao PDR were observed to drift northeastwards into the central parts of Viet Nam on a few days (Figure 6 and 8).

1.5 While the hotspot activity over the southern ASEAN region remained low, there were a few more intense and persistent hotspots detected in the eastern coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia and the eastern parts of Kalimantan (Figure 4 and 5). Localised moderate smoke plumes (Figure 6, 9 and 10) were observed to emanate from these hotspots on some days.

 

Figure 4: Distribution of hotspots detected in April 2024 based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 5: Maximum fire intensity in April 2024 based on NOAA-20 satellite surveillance.

 

Figure 6: Number of days with moderate to dense smoke haze observed in April 2024 based on satellite imagery, ground observations, and air quality reports.

 

Figure 7: Widespread moderate to dense transboundary smoke haze covering the eastern parts of Myanmar, northern and central parts of Thailand, and the northern parts of Lao PDR and Viet Nam on the 5 April 2024. (Source: NOAA-20 satellite surveillance)

 

Figure 8: Moderate smoke plumes emanating from the hotspot clusters detected in the southern and central parts of Lao PDR were observed to drift northeastwards into the central parts of Viet Nam on the 30 April 2024. (Source: NOAA-20 satellite surveillance)

 

Figure 9: Localised smoke plumes observed to emanate from the hotspots detected in the eastern coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia on 29 April 2024. (Source: NOAA-20 satellite surveillance)

 

Figure 10: Localised smoke plumes observed in the eastern parts of Kalimantan on 18 April 2024. (Source: Himawari-9 satellite surveillance)

 

Alert20240513 – Downgrade to Alert Level 1 for the Mekong Sub-Region

Downgrade to Alert Level 1 for the Mekong Sub-Region

Shower activities have become more extensive in the Mekong sub-region, leading to further reduction in hotspot counts and haze occurrence in the sub-region. The likelihood of transboundary haze is now low as dry conditions are mostly confined to parts of Myanmar, with rainfall forecast elsewhere in the sub-region in the coming days. Isolated hotspots and localised smoke plumes may still develop in drier areas.

Based on NOAA-20 surveillance, a total of 100 and 109 hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region on 11 May 2024 and 12 May 2024 respectively. This is a significant reduction from about a week ago. Increased shower activities over the Mekong sub-region are expected to keep the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation subdued, although western areas are likely to remain dry till end May 2024.

May 8, 2024

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (13 May – 26 May 2024)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (13 May – 26 May 2024)

Issued: 8 May 2024
First forecast week: 13 – 19 May 2024
Second forecast week: 20 – 26 May 2024

figure1

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

figure2

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (13 – 26 May). Drier conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (13 – 19 May).

Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region in Week 1 (13 – 19 May). These wetter conditions are predicted to persist over the eastern half of this region in Week 2 (20 – 26 May).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted to persist over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (13 – 26 May).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in the first week of May based on the RMM index. Most models predict this signal to become inactive by the start of the forecast period. In Week 1, some models predict an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) or the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

May 6, 2024

Alert20240506 – Downgrade to Alert Level 2 for the Mekong Sub-Region

Downgrade to Alert Level 2 for the Mekong Sub-Region

Shower activities have started to increase in the Mekong sub-region under inter-monsoon conditions, particularly in eastern and central areas. The increased rainfall has contributed to a reduction in hotspot counts and extent of transboundary smoke haze in the sub-region. Higher hotspot counts and continued smoke haze activity are still likely over northern and western parts of Mekong sub-region where drier conditions are forecast to persist.

A total of 354 and 337 hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region on 4 May 2024 and 5 May 2024 respectively from the NOAA-20 satellite. The overall hotspot and smoke haze situation in the Mekong sub-region is expected to continue to improve as rainfall becomes more widespread across the sub-region in the coming weeks.