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May 9, 2025

24th ASEAN COF (April 2025)

Twenty Fourth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-24)

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22 – 25 April 2025, MOWRAM Cambodia

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2025 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Twenty-Fourth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-24) was organised by the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, Cambodia (MOWRAM), RIMES, ASMC, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. A two-day training workshop occurred prior to the COF proper, with training by the UK Met Office, ASMC, and University of Southern Queensland (22 – 23 April).

During the COF proper, participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2025 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2025 outlook was achieved through a hybrid session, which included presentations from NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-24 was Climate Services and Heat Health. On the last day of ASEANCOF-24, a sharing session was held by the Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN) Southeast Asia Hub, followed by a general sharing session by various sector representatives and producers, including UN ESCAP, FAO, and agricultural and health representatives from Lao PDR and Cambodia. A recording of the COF proper is available at https://community.wmo.int/en/meetings/24th-association-southeast-asian-nations-asean-climate-outlook-forum-aseancof-24.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows average to slightly below-average SSTs across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and along with atmospheric indicators such as trade wind strength and cloudiness, indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. In the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral.
The international climate outlook predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue into JJA 2025. After JJA 2025, most models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, although there is still a high amount of uncertainty for ENSO predictions issued in April.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also predicted to be neutral during JJA 2025.

The onset of the Southwest monsoon season is predicted to be near average for most of Southeast Asia in 2025, starting from May. The strength of the Southwest monsoon is predicted to be near-average over most of Southeast Asia, based on model predictions.

During JJA 2025, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be near average around the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea and above average over the Bay of Bengal.

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer season (JJA 2025):
Above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of the southern ASEAN region. Near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over eastern and southern Philippines, parts of east Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, northeastern Cambodia, and northern and southern Lao PDR.

Below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of southern Thailand, northwestern Cambodia, coastal central Vietnam and northwestern Philippines.

Elsewhere, near-normal rainfall is predicted.

TEMPERATURE

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer season (JJA 2025):
Above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the equatorial region, as well as over eastern and southern Philippines and parts of northern Viet Nam and northwestern Cambodia.

Elsewhere, near- to above-normal1 temperature is predicted.

1For this outlook, near-to above-normal temperature corresponds to 50% probability of above-normal temperature, 40% near-normal, and 10% below-normal. Further information is in the consensus maps.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

CONSENSUS MAPS FOR JJA 2025

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2025 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-24 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, FAO, USQ, GHHIN Southeast Asia Hub and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF. The Forum would also like to thank MOWRAM Cambodia for hosting the forum, with support from RIMES, CREWS and WISER Asia Pacific for the funding support provided for the meeting.

April 1, 2025

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2025 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 4 – 6 March 2025

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2025 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 4 – 6 March 2025

The annual Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) workshop for the Southeast Asia region was conducted in Singapore from 4 to 6 March 2025. A total of 16 delegates from 8 countries participated in the workshop, including delegates from Timor-Leste, who were participating in the workshop for the first time. This workshop is part of the ongoing ASMC Regional Capability-building Programme (ACaP), which seeks to build regional capabilities in weather forecasting, haze monitoring, subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions, and climate change projections.

During the workshop, stakeholders from the environmental and meteorological sectors shared their experiences in their home countries regarding fire prevention and mitigation during the dry season. Participants were involved in multiple in-depth learning sessions led by lecturers from ASMC which covered topics of interest in the region. There were lectures and hands-on activities on using various satellites and satellite products to monitor fires and smoke haze. Participants were also introduced to the weather and climate of the Southeast Asia region, followed by interpretation of subseasonal and seasonal forecast products. The latest developments in products and services by ASMC, such as the WMO Information System (WIS) 2.0, burned area mapping and smoke haze dispersion modelling were also presented.

Experts from various research and academic institutions in South Korea were invited to deliver a lecture on the Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), on board the GeoKompSat-2B satellite, which is capable of monitoring climate forcers and air pollutants from space. Through hands-on activities, participants learned more about the visualisation of data recorded by GEMS using the GEMSAT software, as well as how such data can assist in haze monitoring.

This workshop provided opportunities for the participants to learn and interact with the lecturers as well as their peers in the region who work in the areas of fires and haze monitoring, mitigation and control. Going forward, the fourth round of the ASMC attachment programme will be held for regional countries in mid-2025, to provide regional officers with a chance to work with ASMC officers and perform more in-depth fires and haze analysis using meteorological and satellite data.

Figure 1: Group photograph of ASMC staff and participants of the 2025 H2A workshop.
Figure 1: Group photograph of ASMC staff and participants of the 2025 H2A workshop.

Figure 2: Participants’ sharing of local experience on fire and haze in their countries.
Figure 2: Participants’ sharing of local experience on fire and haze in their countries.

December 9, 2024

23nd ASEAN COF (November 2024)

Twenty Third Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-23)

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26-29 November 2024, Online

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Twenty-third session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-23) was organised by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR, RIMES, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2024/2025 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from ASEAN NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-23 was Agriculture and Climate Services. On the last day of ASEANCOF-23, a sharing session was held which included updates from ASEANCOF-22 around the use of climate services for agriculture.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows average to slightly below-average SSTs across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and along with atmospheric indicators such as trade wind strength and cloudiness, indicate La Niña-like conditions. In the Indian Ocean, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole did not develop, and based on the recent analysis, the SST anomalies show signs of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
The international climate outlooks predict that a weak La Niña is likely to develop sometime in December 2024 and persist until February 2025. After DJF 2024/2025, most models predict La Niña conditions to transition back to ENSO neutral.
There is a chance that a short-lived negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be present during December 2024 based on the model predictions. However, the IOD is predicted to be neutral during January – February 2025.
The onset of the Northeast Monsoon season has been or is expected to be near or later than average for much of the northern ASEAN region. The onset for much of the southern ASEAN region has been or is expected to be near average. The strength of the Northeast Monsoon is predicted to be near average over most of Southeast Asia.
During DJF 2024/2025, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be near average around the Philippine Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea.

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (DJF 2024/2025):
Over the Maritime Continent, near- to above-normal or above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the region, including the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, and Singapore. The exception is over parts of the equatorial region, where a mix of near-normal and normal- to below-normal rainfall is predicted.
Across Mainland Southeast Asia, near- to above-normal or above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern part, including southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, Cambodia, southern Lao PDR, and southern Viet Nam. Below-normal rainfall is predicted for northern Viet Nam and elsewhere, near-normal rainfall is predicted.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the western part of Northern Philippines. Below- to near- normal rainfall is predicted over southern Lao PDR, the rest of Northern Philippines, and southernmost parts of Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, near-normal rainfall is predicted.1.

TEMPERATURE

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (DJF 2024/2025):
Near- to above-normal or above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region. The exception is over northern Lao PDR, and northeast and central Viet Nam, where near-normal temperature is predicted. The highest chance of above-normal temperature is over northern and central Myanmar, northern Thailand, southern Lao PDR, Singapore, the southern Philippines, and Brunei Darussalam.

1This is based on the climatology period 1991-2020. However, at the national level, Myanmar is using the 1981-2010 climatology as their base period.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2024/2025 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2024/2025 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-23 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF. The Forum would also like to thank DMH Lao PDR for hosting the forum virtually, as well as trainers from RIMES and UK Met Office.

October 9, 2024

ASMC-WMO Regional Forum 2024, 4 – 6 September 2024

ASMC-WMO Regional Forum 2024 (4 – 6 September 2024)

ASMC and WMO jointly organised the inaugural ASMC – WMO Regional Forum in Singapore, from 4 to 6 September 2024.  Titled “Towards a Weather-Ready and Climate-Resilient ASEAN”, the Forum brought together global, regional and national leaders and partners from across the climate services value chain to focus on how climate services, including high-resolution regional climate projections and early warning systems, can better support climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Southeast Asia. The Forum also discussed how effective and inclusive early warning systems can mitigate the impact of extreme weather and climate events, especially in light of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative. Key highlights of the Forum included:

  • Deep dive into findings relevant to Southeast Asia from the 2023 WMO State of the Climate Reports for the South-West Pacific and Asia, with keynote address by Prof. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO and panel discussion on supporting ASEAN member states in translating climate information into actions.
  • Keynote presentations on climate change projections for Southeast Asia and the United Nations Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative
  • Technical Forums on Adapting to Climate Change in Southeast Asia, and Early Warning Systems as an Adaptive Measure: Panellists discussed about the current challenge and disaster riskscape in the Southeast Asia, the opportunity and on supports for NMHSs and ASEAN Member States in achieving EW4All.

The recordings on the presentations, panel discussions, the summaries from the World Café sessions, interactive group exercises and the regional forum can be accessed via link

August 22, 2024

Summary of the 4th Workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA IV)

Summary of the 4th Workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA IV)

August 2023, Singapore

The S2S-SEA IV workshop in August 2023, led by the ASMC and the Centre for Climate Research Singapore, marked the end of a four-part workshop series on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction in Southeast Asia. The workshop series aimed to build capacity and enhance collaboration among the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the ASEAN region regarding S2S prediction. The fourth S2S-SEA Workshop included two virtual sessions (15 and 30 August) and an in-person segment between 22 and 24 August 2023, conducted in Singapore. Fifteen NMHS representatives from nine ASEAN Member States attended the in-person training, along with six trainers. Encompassing the in-person training, the two virtual sessions allowed more users to participate in the workshop, as well as more time for reflection in between the sessions. An additional 26 users and three trainers attended the virtual sessions, leading to a total number of 50 participants in SEA-SEA IV over the in-person and virtual sessions.

Key takeaways shared by the participants during the workshop included information on latest updates on sources of S2S predictability (including questions that are still unanswered), a better awareness of S2S products, and the procedure to give a S2S briefing to users (something NMHSs are not always trained in). The workshop also discussed the future of S2S predictions and plans for collaboration in the ASEAN region. Common challenges faced by NMHSs raised in the workshop include the need for improved communication, data access, and automation. Plans were made for fortnightly discussions between ASEAN NMHSs to review climate drivers and S2S outlooks.

Since the first workshop in 2017, many of the NMHSs in Southeast Asia have moved from research to delivering operational S2S products. While there is still more to do around delivering actionable products, discussions during the S2S-SEA IV highlighted that sharing experiences and expertise in the region is useful for the continued development of S2S predictions in Southeast Asia.

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Participants during Virtual Sessions of the S2S SEA-IV workshop.

 

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Group photo during the S2S-SEA Workshop, Singapore (in-person, 22-24 August 2023).

 

Workshop report

S2S SEA SIV report

June 5, 2024

22nd ASEAN COF (May 2024)

Twenty Second Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-22)

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27-30 May 2024, DMH Lao PDR

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2024 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Twenty-Second session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-22) was organised by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR, RIMES, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2024 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2024 outlook was achieved through a hybrid session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. There was also two-day pre-COF training, conducted by the UK Met Office under the WISER Asia Pacific project and RIMES. The theme of ASEANCOF-22 was Agriculture and Climate Services, with a focus on drought. On the last day of ASEANCOF-22, a sharing session was held which included presentations from UN ESCAP, FAO, and WFP, as well as discussion on ways to improve ASEANCOF.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows average to slightly below-average SSTs across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and along with atmospheric indicators such as trade wind strength and cloudiness, indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. In the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is also neutral.

The international climate outlook predicts that a La Niña is likely to develop sometime during JJA 2024. After JJA 2024, most models predict La Niña conditions to continue until the end of the year.
There is a chance that a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may become established during JJA 2024 based on the model predictions. However, it is predicted to most likely be short-lived.

The onset of the Southwest monsoon season has been or is expected to be near average for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, apart from Thailand where the onset is later than average. The onset of the Southwest monsoon for much of the Maritime Continent has been or is expected to be near average. The strength of the Southwest monsoon is predicted to be near average over most of the Southeast Asia, based on model predictions.

During JJA 2024, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be below average around the Philippine Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and near average around South China Sea.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs, ASEANCOF-22 agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2024 over the ASEAN region:

RAINFALL

Above-normal rainfall is predicted over northern Myanmar, parts of Cambodia and parts of the equatorial region, including Brunei Darussalam and middle part of East Malaysia. Near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over southern Thailand, western part of East Malaysia, and the southern Philippines, as well as parts of Mainland Southeast Asia including western Myanmar, northwestern Lao PDR, parts of Cambodia, and southern Viet Nam.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the western part of Northern Philippines. Below- to near- normal rainfall is predicted over southern Lao PDR, the rest of Northern Philippines, and southernmost parts of Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, near-normal rainfall is predicted.1.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia, apart from over much of Myanmar, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam, and the Philippines where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted.

1This is based on the climatology period 1991-2020. However, at the national level, Myanmar is using the 1981-2010 climatology as their base period.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for JJA 2024 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2024 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-22 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, FAO, WFP, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF. The Forum would also like to thank DMH Lao PDR for hosting the forum, with support from RIMES, and CREWS Cambodia and Lao PDR and WISER Asia Pacific for the funding support provided for the meeting.

March 8, 2024

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2024 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 27 – 29 February 2024

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2024 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 27 – 29 February 2024

On 27-29 February 2024, the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted the ninth run of the Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) workshop for the ASEAN region in Singapore. This workshop is part of the ongoing ASMC Regional Capability-building Programme (ACaP), which seeks to build regional capabilities in weather forecasting, haze monitoring, subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions, as well as climate change projections.

During this workshop, experts from the environment and meteorological sectors of the ASEAN region shared their local experiences, knowledge and preparations for the upcoming dry seasons. Topics covered during the workshop included fire and haze detection methodologies, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, dispersion modelling and a walkthrough of key ASMC information platforms for the region. There were also hands-on activities where participants were guided on extraction of satellite data and regional haze analysis. The lecturers were from ASMC as well as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), the key developer of the hotspot detection algorithms used in the region.

Figure 1: Group photograph of ASMC staff and trainers, NOAA lecturers and participants of the 2024 H2A workshop.
Figure 1: Group photograph of ASMC staff and trainers, NOAA lecturers and participants of the 2024 H2A workshop.

Figure 2: Participants’ sharing of local experience on fire and haze in their countries.
Figure 2: Participants’ sharing of local experience on fire and haze in their countries.

Beyond the lectures and activities, participants also visited the Singapore Marina Barrage, one of the largest water catchment areas located in the heart of the city, as well as the sustainable gallery. Many participants appreciated the relevance and usefulness of the topics covered and shared positive feedback on their experiences at the event.

Figure 3: Lecturer from NOAA sharing on fire detection algorithms and haze detection tools.
Figure 3: Lecturer from NOAA sharing on fire detection algorithms and haze detection tools.

Figure 4: Participants had the opportunity to learn about climate change mitigation efforts at the sustainable gallery.
Figure 4: Participants had the opportunity to learn about climate change mitigation efforts at the sustainable gallery.

November 30, 2023

21st ASEAN COF (Nov 2023, Online)

Twentieth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-21)

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17, 20, 21, 23 Nov 2023, MSS

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2023-2024 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Twenty-First session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-21) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) in collaboration with ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. ASEANCOF-21 marked 10 years since the first ASEANCOF was held in December 2013. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2023/2024 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2023/2024 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-21 was ‘The Future of Climate Services in Southeast Asia’’. On the last day of ASEANCOF-21, a sharing session was held which included presentations on the review of 10 years of ASEANCOF, Pilot Hydrological Outlook Forum, and WISER Asia Pacific project.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows well above-average SSTs over the Nino3.4 region, along with atmospheric indicators such as trade wind strength and cloudiness, indicating El Niño conditions. In the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is present.

For DJF 2023/2024, the current El Niño conditions are likely to continue. After DJF 2023/2024, global climate models predict the El Niño conditions to gradually weaken, though continue to indicate El Niño conditions for much of the first half of 2024. The peak strength of the ongoing El Niño, based on Nino3.4 index, is predicted to be moderate to strong.

The positive IOD is predicted to weaken and return to IOD-neutral over DJF 2023/2024.

The onset of the Northeast monsoon season has been or is expected to be later than average for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, with near or later than average over some parts of the Maritime Continent. The strength of the Northeast monsoon is expected to be weaker than normal over most of the Southeast Asia, based on model predictions and supported by the ongoing El Niño conditions.

During DJF 2023/2024, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be below average around the Philippine Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and below to near average around South China Sea.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs, ASEANCOF-21 agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2023-24 over the ASEAN region:

RAINFALL

Over much of the Maritime Continent, below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted, apart from over the equatorial region, where a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall is predicted.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, a mix of near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. Near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia, while below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted mainly over western parts. Elsewhere over this region, near-normal rainfall is predicted.

TEMPERATURE

Near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia. While above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the region, near-normal temperature is predicted over parts of northern and western Myanmar, and near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over parts of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and the Philippines.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex C).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2023/2024 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2023/2024 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-21 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the GPCs, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

June 1, 2023

20th ASEAN COF (May 2023, Online)

Twentieth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-20)

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25, 26, 30 May 2023, ASMC

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2023 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Twentieth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-20) was organised by ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2023 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-20 was ‘Advances in climate services on subseasonal to seasonal timescales’. On the last day of ASEANCOF-20, a sharing session was held on the impact of El Niño on Southeast Asia, involving NMHSs and users of ASEANCOF information.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows average to slightly above-average SSTs across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and along with atmospheric indicators such as trade wind strength and cloudiness, indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. In the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral.

An El Niño is highly likely to become established during JJA 2023. After JJA 2023, most global climate models predict the El Niño conditions to continue until the end of the year. The strength of the upcoming El Niño is uncertain, although some models are predicting that it could be moderate to strong.

A positive IOD is predicted to become establish during JJA 2023. Most models predict the IOD to return to neutral before the end of 2023.

The onset of the Southwest monsoon season has been or is expected to be later than average for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, while near average for the rest of the region. Over western parts of the region, the strength of the Southwest monsoon is expected to be stronger than average, with weaker than average or near average strength for the rest of the region, based on model predictions and supported by the predicted El Niño conditions.

During JJA 2023, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be below to near average around the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea and near average around the Bay of Bengal.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs, ASEANCOF-20 agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2023 over the ASEAN region:

RAINFALL

Over most of the southern ASEAN region, below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted. The exceptions include northeastern Borneo and eastern Maritime Continent where near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted.

Over much of the northern ASEAN region, a mix of near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. Above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of southwestern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, while near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted elsewhere over this region. Above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the western half of the Philippines, with near- to above-normal rainfall elsewhere1.

TEMPERATURE

Near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia1. Near-normal temperature is predicted over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, including southern Sumatra and Java. Near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over the southwestern and southeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted.

1This is based on the climatology period 1991-2020. However, at the national level, Myanmar is using the 1981-2010 climatology as their base period.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for JJA 2023 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2023 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-20 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the GPCs, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

May 4, 2023

ASMC Attachment Programme

ASMC Attachment Programme, March – April 2023

The first run of the ASMC Attachment Programme kicked off in in March 2023. Two officers from the Mekong sub-region, Ms Khaing Yi Mon Lin from Myanmar and Mr Pankham Soundala from Lao PDR were attached to the ASMC Operations Centre for a 6-to-8-week period during the northern ASEAN dry season. Together with ASMC staff, they were involved in the preparation of the daily weather and haze assessment and outlook for the ASEAN region, and familiarised with the regional weather, satellite data and numerical weather prediction tools. During their attachment, they also conducted a data analysis study on the hotspots and haze conditions in their home country and performed real-time analysis of the evolving haze situation in the Mekong sub-region. Using ASMC hotspot and haze coverage geospatial data, they assessed the siting of air quality monitoring stations, and conducted a comparison of hotspot persistency with their national land coverage information.

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: (left) Attachment programme participants taking part in the daily discussion on the regional weather and haze situation. (right) A familiarisation with ASMC’s satellite reception facilities.

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