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May 30, 2020

14th ASEAN COF (21 May 2020, Online Correspondence)

Fourteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-14)

21st May 2020, Online Correspondence
 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2020 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The fourteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-14) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the summer monsoon 2020 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2020 outlooks was achieved through online correspondence, including questionnaires and online discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicate near average SSTs and ENSO neutral conditions are present. The international climate outlooks predict ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during JJA 2020, although there is potential that La Niña conditions may begin to develop towards the end of the period or later in the year. The previous positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weakened in January 2020 and the current IOD state is neutral. Some models predict a negative IOD event to develop during JJA, but with relatively high uncertainty at this time of year.

The consensus from ASEANCOF is an increased chance of a negative IOD event to develop during JJA while ENSO conditions are most likely to remain neutral during JJA. The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is expected to be weaker than normal, based on model predictions. However, local rainfall for some regions will depend on tropical cyclone activity, which is uncertain. For most countries, the onset of the SW monsoon is expected to be near-normal. However, the SW monsoon related rainfall may arrive later than normal for a few countries (Thailand and Viet Nam). Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be near normal for JJA 2020.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2020 for the Southeast Asia region:

 

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer season (June-July-August), normal- to above-normal rainfall is expected over much of the equatorial region (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and northern parts of Indonesia) as well as northern Viet Nam and coastal central Viet Nam. Normal- to below-normal rainfall is expected over southern Myanmar, southern and northeastern Thailand, northern Philippines, parts of Lao PDR, and southeastern Indonesia. Elsewhere, normal or climatological probabilities are forecasted.

TEMPERATURE

Above-normal temperature is expected over most of Southeast Asia, although the probability of above-normal temperature is lower over Viet Nam and parts of Indonesia, and northern Philippines.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for JJA 2020

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2020 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-14 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum.

February 3, 2020

Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Mekong sub-region and Attachment Programme (13-16 January 2020)

Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Mekong sub-region and Attachment Programme (13-16 January 2020)

As part of the ASMC 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme for ASEAN Member States, ASMC conducts regular training workshops in the area of land/forest fires and smoke haze monitoring and assessment using data from satellites. This year, the training workshop was held on 13 – 16 January 2020 together with a short attachment stint at ASMC for the Mekong sub-region comprising Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Five participants from the environment, forestry and pollution control sectors joined this year’s programme.

Workshop participants with meteorologists from the ASMC Forecast Office (left). Participants were briefed on the process of assessing the weather and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region (right).

The workshop included lectures for participants to gain foundational understanding of topics such as weather systems in Southeast Asia, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, interpretation of satellite imageries, data analysis methodologies, and dispersion modelling as a predictive tool. The lectures were supplemented with hands-on exercises in interpretation of satellite data. The participants also had a short attachment at the ASMC Forecast Office, where they worked with ASMC meteorologists to carry out near real-time assessment of the fire and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region.

Hands-on exercises for participants to practise their skills in analysing weather and satellite data to produce an outlook of the haze situation in the Mekong sub-region (left). Participants visited Meteorological Service Singapore’s Centre for Climate Research where they learnt how subseasonal and seasonal forecasts can augment haze monitoring and assessment efforts (right).

Ms Phayvone Sengphone, Research Officer from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Lao PDR, felt that the lectures and activities conducted during the workshop were interesting and applicable to her work. She found the attachment stint useful in providing insights into ASMC’s operations.

Besides such training workshops focusing on monitoring and assessment of regional fires and smoke haze, three other workshops on the themes of Numerical Weather Prediction, Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction, and ASEAN Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) are also in the pipeline for this year.

December 17, 2019

First Module on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (18-22 Nov 2019)

First Module on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (18 – 22 Nov 2019)

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted the Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods Module 1 (WPNM-M1) in Singapore from 18 to 22 November 2019, as part of its 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme rolled out in 2018. The 5-day capability building and knowledge sharing training module was attended by 18 participants from 9 ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and was delivered by lecturers from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) and Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS).

 

Participants from the ASEAN NMHS with lecturers from CCRS and SUSS at the training module conducted by ASMC in Singapore

The objectives of the training module were to provide participants with a deep understanding of the conceptualisation, formulation and limitations of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models; to equip participants with knowledge on the governing equations used in NWP models; and to equip participants with numerical methods to solve these equations and their associated limitations.

 

Dr Teo Chee Kiat, a CCRS lecturer, facilitating the hands-on practical sessions using simplified models

 

A series of 9 lectures were conducted during the WPNM-M1, covering a wide range of topics ranging from the various approximations used in the governing equations, to various numerical methods commonly used in operational NWP systems and key considerations for operational implementation. Hands-on practical sessions were conducted using simplified models which were coded in-house by CCRS lecturers, to illustrate the concepts highlighted during the lectures and to help bridge theory with practical applications.

 

Overall, the training module was well-received by the participants. Almost all participants indicated interest to attend future training modules and expressed support for the continuation of the training series. Participants also commended the use of simplified models for pedagogical purposes. Plans were made to prepare a peer-reviewed publication consolidating the current and possible future NWP efforts in ASEAN.

December 5, 2019

13th ASEAN COF (18-21 November 2019, Thailand)

Thirteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-13)

November 2019, Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC)

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2019-2020 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale for Southeast Asia.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Thirteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-13) was organised by the Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre.

Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter 2019-2020 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2019-2020 outlooks was achieved through the Thirteenth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum and Training in Bangkok, Thailand from 18 to 21 November 2019. The consensus was made based on presentations and discussions on current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicate slightly above average SSTs across most of the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO neutral conditions have been present since July 2019. The international climate outlooks predict ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during DJF 2019-2020. The present positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to weaken in DJF 2019-2020. The Northeast monsoon for the southern half of the region is expected to be delayed due to the strong positive IOD at the start of the season.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2019-2020 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter season (December-January-February), near-normal conditions are expected over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of the equatorial region. However, there is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over northern Vietnam, the eastern part of Malaysia, the eastern part of Celebes, Moluccas and northern part of Papua. There is a slightly increased probability of drier than normal conditions over the southern part of Myanmar, parts of Thailand (the northern, central, eastern and south-eastern of region), Philippines, northern and southern Sumatra, Java, the western part of Celebes, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, the southern part of Borneo and the southern part of Papua.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are expected for most of Southeast Asia, apart from northern Myanmar, southern Thailand and northern Sumatra, where near normal temperatures are expected. For the regions with expected above normal temperature, the highest probability is over northern Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, northern Thailand and southern Myanmar.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2019-2020

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2019-2020 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-13 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum. The Forum would also like to thank the ASEAN Secretariat, the WMO Secretariat, and the local organising committee from TMD for the administrative and funding support provided to the meeting.

July 22, 2019

3rd Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring (26-28 Jun 2019, Singapore)

Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Southern ASEAN region

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted a workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Land/Forest Fires and Transboundary Haze for the southern ASEAN region in Singapore on 26 – 28 June 2019. Participants from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors of Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand took part in the workshop.
 

Participants group photo - Southern ASMC workshop Jun 2019

ASMC engages with users from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors in region through various means, including the conduct of customised training workshops.

 

Participants group photo - Southern ASMC workshop Jun 2019

In her welcome address, ASMC Director of Operations, Ms Patricia Ee emphasised the Centre’s commitment to serve the region as the ASEAN centre for monitoring, assessment and early warning of fires and transboundary smoke haze, and the need for collaboration among ASEAN Members to address land/forest fires and transboundary haze pollution issues.

 
The ASMC trainers shared on basic meteorology, remote sensing technologies, weather and climate prediction, as well as haze modelling tools. Case studies and exercises were incorporated so that participants could apply what they have learnt and acquire practical hands-on experience with the assistance of the trainer. The participants also visited an Air Quality Monitoring station and the ASMC operations centre.
 

Tour of ASMC operational facilities and visit to air quality station

Participants on a tour of the ASMC operational facilities (left) and an air quality monitoring station in Singapore (right). They were given a brief on how the Centre conducts monitoring and assessment of regional haze situation using the latest satellite technologies and numerical modelling tools.

 
Ms Haryanti Petra from the Brunei Department of Environment, Parks and Recreation commended the wide range of topics covered in the workshop and noted that the hands–on exercises and activities to assess hotspots and transboundary haze on satellite images were useful.

This training workshop was conducted as part of the 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme rolled out by the ASMC in 2018, aimed to benefit ASEAN Member States through the sharing of technical knowledge and skills. Under the Programme, ASMC is investing S$5 million to enhance its efforts in capability building covering four key priority areas, viz weather forecasting, sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, climate change projections and haze monitoring.

May 31, 2019

12th ASEAN COF (May 2019, Online Correspondence)

Twelfth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-12)

May 2019, Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC)

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2019 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Twelfth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-12) was organised by the Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the Summer Monsoon 2019 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2019 outlooks was achieved through online correspondence. The consensus was made based on completed questionnaires regarding current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region as well as an online discussion. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the Equatorial Pacific indicate above average SSTs across most of the Pacific Ocean. Borderline El Niño conditions have been present since SON 2018. The international climate outlooks predict El Niño conditions are likely to continue during JJA 2019. The present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop into a positive IOD in JJA 2019 and the later part of the year.

The Summer Monsoon is predicted to be normal throughout Southeast Asia. As such, near normal occurrence of tropical cyclones is expected over the Bay of Bengal. Due to the prediction of a normal Summer Monsoon along with El Niño conditions, the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Philippines is expected to be below normal.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2019 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon season (June-July-August), below normal conditions are expected over most parts of the Southeast Asia. However, there is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over western and southern Myanmar and parts of Sumatra, Northern Celebes, Moluccas, and Papua islands of Indonesia.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are expected over much of central and eastern Southeast Asia, including parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, central and western Indonesia. Normal to above normal temperature are expected elsewhere, including Philippines, Moluccas and Papua islands of Indonesia.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for JJA 2019

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2019 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-12 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum.

December 21, 2018

2nd Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring (4-6 Dec 2018, Singapore)

Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Mekong Sub-region

As the dry season of the Mekong sub-region approached, the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centres (ASMC) conducted another round of the Workshop on the “Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring” for the Mekong sub-region on 4 – 6 December 2018 in Singapore to aid preparatory efforts. The workshop brought together experts from the different sectors, such as forestry, environment, pollution control, meteorology and research – all of them part of the larger community working together to address the transboundary haze pollution issue affecting the region. Each participant brought with them invaluable experiences from their work to share with others.

Participants group photo - ASMC workshop Dec 2018

Experts from the Mekong sub-region’s forestry, environment, pollution control, meteorology and research sectors attended the ASMC Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fires and Haze Monitoring.

During the Workshop, participants were introduced to a range of products and information services availed by the ASMC for applications in the monitoring and assessment of land / forest fires and haze, as well as the scientific concepts and theories enabling such applications. These products include satellite imageries, hotspot and haze information derived from satellite data, and numerical model outputs. The Workshop also covered the interpretation of ASMC’s sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction products, and how such information could be applied in the planning. Participants were also introduced to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Information System portal (WIS portal), an online data catalogue of ASMC’s products that facilitates convenient access and further downstream processing. The ASMC WIS Portal enables functions such automatic updates disseminated via email and/or File Transfer Protocol (FTP), depending on users’ preference.

Much of the Workshop focused on interactive and practical exercises to equip the participants with the skills to interpret the products and derive information that could be applied in ground operations. In addition to the lectures and exercises, participants were taken out of the classroom for technical visits to an Air Quality Monitoring station and the Central Forecast Office of the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS). Mr Somdet Champee from the Royal Forestry Department of Thailand felt that the workshop was useful for operational staff and policy-makers alike, and commended the organisers for including relevant topics that met the learning objectives of participants.

Scenario-based simulations to interprete S2S predictions

ASMC has rolled out subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction products for the Southeast Asia region in 2018. During the Workshop, the interpretation of S2S prediction was demonstrated using scenario-based simulations. The exercise was designed to enable participants to make informed decisions for each scenario using S2S predictions.

 

Hands-on exercises on satellite image interpretation

Interpreting satellite data requires an understanding of the basic principles of remote sensing and how satellite data are processed. The Workshop included hands-on exercises for participants to practise applying the concepts taught by interpreting satellite imageries of past haze episodes.

 

Visit to MSS Central Forecast Office

Interpreting satellite data requires an understanding of the basic principles of remote sensing and how satellite data are processed. The Workshop included hands-on exercises for participants to practise applying the concepts taught by interpreting satellite imageries of past haze episodes.

 

Training is a continuous process. As the regional centre for monitoring, assessing and providing early warning for transboundary haze, ASMC will continue to deliver capability building programmes focusing on remote sensing technologies and their applications in environmental monitoring. The aim remains to enable the community to take advantage of the advances afforded by the latest technologies through sharing of expertise and knowledge transfer.

December 12, 2018

11th ASEAN COF (29 Oct – 1 Nov 2018, Malaysia)

11th ASEAN COF (29 Oct – 1 Nov 2018, Malaysia)

The Eleventh ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-11) was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 29 October – 01 November 2018. This forum was organised by the Malaysian Meteorological Department in collaboration with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). The ASEANCOF was started in 2013, as part of the World Meteorological Organisation/Climate Information and Prediction Services (WMO/CLIPS) project for Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOFs) in cooperation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It is a platform for regional NMHSs and international partners such as the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) to collaboratively develop a consensus-based seasonal climate outlook and related information on a regional scale. It also provides an avenue for NMHSs to share best practices and get updated on the latest scientific advances in seasonal predictions. The ASEANCOF-11 event was co-funded by the ASEAN Science Technology and Innovation Fund (ASTIF), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its partners, and Malaysian Meteorological Department.

 

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The forum’s outlook and activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASMC, which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN NMHSs. The Forum also supports the activities of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre Network (SEA RCC-Network) – which entered the demonstration phase on 7 November 2017 – by providing the consensus outlook as well as the platform to discuss issues on provision of climate services in the Southeast Asia region.

The forum was attended by representatives from the region’s NMHSs, i.e. Brunei, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam who presented on their national rainfall and temperature outlook for the upcoming December 2018 – February 2019 (DJF 2018-19) boreal winter monsoon season. The NMHSs were joined by experts from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), UK MetOffice (UKMO), and the WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), who presented on the regional outlook from their respective models. To provide scientific basis for the outlook of DJF 2018-19, the Forum also assessed the various global and regional climatic factors that influence the DJF season in the area. In particular, the Forum took into account the influence on the climate over Southeast Asia from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical cyclones, and the monsoon circulation patterns.

Three regional end-user agencies from the water resources management and agricultural sectors were also invited, namely, the ASEAN Hydroinformatics Data Centre (AHC), the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), and the Mekong River Commission (MRC). The agencies shared on their activities that serve the respective communities and, in line with this year’s meeting theme, they shared on their requirements for seasonal predictions and monitoring of extreme weather and climate.

Conditions and Outlook

The ENSO was in warm-neutral conditions in late October 2018. There is a 70% chance for an El Niño event to develop in the season DJF 2018-19 but its intensity is unlikely to be strong, and more likely to be weak than moderate. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index was also slightly positive (warmer western Indian ocean SST, and cooler eastern Indian Ocean SST). But the IOD is predicted to be neutral in DJF 2018-19.

For monsoon activity, due to warmer conditions predicted over East Asia in the DJF 2018-19 season, a weaker high pressure system is generally expected and consequently may result in weaker northeast monsoon winds. This coupled with potential changes in the Walker Circulation due to El Niño, convective rainfall activity is expected to be relatively suppressed in general for the region in DJF 2018-2019. Typically, during El Niño events, tropical cyclone activity in the Southwest Pacific tends to be less active (less frequent). However, as the El Niño event is not expected to be a strong one, and models are not showing significantly reduced tropical cyclone activity in the DJF 2018-19; a near-normal situation is more likely.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2018-19 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal winter monsoon season (DJF 2018-19), below-normal conditions are favoured over parts of the Philippines, southern Vietnam, northern Laos, central and southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, and northern Borneo. Elsewhere near- to above-normal rainfall conditions are favoured, with relatively less confident probabilities.

TEMPERATURE

Above-normal temperatures are favoured over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming boreal winter monsoon season (DJF 2018-19). Near-normal to above-normal temperatures are favoured over southern Vietnam, Brunei, and northern-central Myanmar.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2018-2019

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2018-19 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above-Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near-Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below-Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-12 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgement

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum. The Forum would also like to thank the ASEAN Secretariat, the WMO Secretariat, and the local organising committee from MMD for the administrative and funding support provided to the meeting.

July 5, 2018

1st Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring (31 Jan – 2 Feb 2018, Singapore)

The Use and Interpretation of Data on Land and Forest Fires and Transboundary Haze (31 Jan – 2 Feb 2018, Singapore)

As part of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre’s (ASMC’s) on-going regional capacity building effort, a 2.5-day workshop was held in Singapore between 31 January and 2 February 2018 for the Mekong Sub-region on “The Use and Interpretation of Data on Land and Forest Fires and Transboundary Haze”. 14 officers from the region’s environment agencies and national meteorological services took part in the workshop.

The Workshop focused on the meteorological aspects of fire and smoke haze monitoring, on the use and interpretation of satellite remote sensing to monitor weather, fires and smoke haze in the region, and on the theory and practical aspects of numerical weather prediction and dispersion modelling tools to forecast the transport and dispersion of smoke haze. Participants were also introduced to the range of products and services that ASMC provides to support the monitoring, assessment and advisories of land and forest fires and smoke haze pollution.

 

Participants group photo - ASMC workshop 2018

Participants from the environment and national meteorological services of the northern ASEAN countries with Director of the ASMC and ASMC Trainers at the training workshop conducted by the ASMC in Singapore.

 

To enable participants to apply what was learnt in the Workshop in their work, they were led through hands-on exercises in the interpretation of satellite imageries and outputs of dispersion models by trainers from ASMC. Site visits to an air quality monitoring station and the Central Forecast Office in Singapore were also conducted to provide participants with a flavour of the operations in Singapore and the coordination between the national meteorological service and pollution control department.

 

Participants site visit - ASMC Workshop 2018

Participants having a discussion (top left) and visiting an air quality monitoring station in Singapore (top right). Beyond traditional classroom learning, the Workshop program was designed to be interactive and include site visits to help participants better apply what was learnt.

 

In her Opening Address to the workshop, Ms Wong Chin Ling, Director (ASMC) emphasised that addressing transboundary haze pollution required not only inter-agency coordination within each country but also ASEAN working together as a region. This helped set the tone for the workshop. Both participants and trainers shared their expertise and work experiences generously in order to learn from one another.

 

Director of ASMC delivering speech - ASMC Workshop 2018

Director (ASMC) addressing participants at the opening of the Workshop. She emphasised the importance of regional cooperation in addressing transboundary haze pollution in ASEAN.

June 5, 2018

10th ASEAN COF (May 2018, Online Correspondence)

10th ASEAN COF (May 2018, Online Correspondence)

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Tenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-10) was organised by the Malaysian Meteorological Department in collaboration with the Meteorological Services Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of 10 ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the summer monsoon 2018 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2018 outlooks was achieved through online correspondence. The consensus is made based on the completed questionnaires on current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

 

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Conditions and Outlook for JJA 2018

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific indicate an ENSO neutral state. The warmer than average SSTs during first quarter of 2018 over eastern Pacific weakened in May.

The international climate outlooks show ENSO-neutral conditions are now present and likely to continue during JJA 2018. The present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to continue towards the later part of the year.

The Southwest Monsoon is predicted to be generally normal throughout Southeast Asia. As such, the occurrence of five to seven tropical cyclones is expected in the Philippines. Likewise, near normal occurrence of tropical cyclones is also expected over the Bay of Bengal. Elsewhere, the occurrence of Squalls is favoured during this period.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2018 for the Southeast Asia region.

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season (June-July-August), normal conditions are expected over most parts of the Southeast Asia. However, there is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over coastal Myanmar and central Philippines. Below to near normal rainfall is expected over western and central Borneo, Singapore, and central Indonesia.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are expected over much of central and eastern Southeast Asia, including parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, northern Borneo, central and southern Philippines, and eastern Indonesia. Near normal temperature are expected elsewhere, including over Mainland Southeast Asia.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for JJA 2018

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2018 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-10 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgement

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum.