Category Archives: Fortnightly Weather Outlook

CR58

November 12, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (15 – 28 November 2021)

Issued 12 November 2021
First forecast week: 15 November – 21 November
Second forecast week: 22 November – 28 November

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over much of western and southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (15 – 21 November). These wetter conditions are likely to persist over western Mainland Southeast Asia, but likely to ease over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, in Week 2 (22 – 28 November).

For the Maritime Continent, wetter conditions are expected over the southern parts in the next fortnight (15 – 28 November). Elsewhere, drier conditions are expected over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (15 – 21 November).

Warmer than usual temperature is expected over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (15 – 21 November), in line with the drier conditions predicted.

No clear MJO signal was present at the start of November. Most models predict the MJO to remain indiscernible based on the RMM Index during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

October 29, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 – 14 November 2021)

Issued 29 October 2021
First forecast week: 1 November – 7 November
Second forecast week: 8 November – 14 November

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Over most of the southern ASEAN region, wetter conditions are predicted in the next fortnight (1 – 14 November). There is also an increased chance of wetter conditions in the region around 10°N (southern parts of Thailand, Cambodia, and Viet Nam), although with a lower likelihood than for the southern ASEAN region.

In Week 1 (1 – 7 November), wetter conditions are predicted over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia (parts of Myanmar and northern Lao PDR). Also in Week 1, drier conditions are predicted over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines.

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (1 – 7 November). These warmer conditions are expected to ease in Week 2 (8 – 14 November), apart from over Myanmar and northern Philippines.

No clear MJO signal was present at the end of October based on the RMM Index.
Most models predict no clear MJO signal for the start of the forecast period, although some models suggest an MJO signal to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1 and then propagate eastwards over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 2.

October 15, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (18 – 31 October 2021)

Issued 15 October 2021
First forecast week: 18 October – 24 October
Second forecast week: 25 October – 31 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Over most of the Maritime Continent, wetter conditions are predicted in the next fortnight (18 – 31 October). The highest likelihood for wetter conditions is for the equatorial region in Week 1 (18 – 24 October), while the highest likelihood is over central and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent in Week 2 (25 – 31 October).

Over Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 October), wetter conditions are predicted apart from over western Mainland Southeast Asia. In Week 2 (25 – 31 October), these wetter conditions are generally expected to ease, although a small increase in wetter conditions remains over southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

No significant regional temperature anomalies are expected in the next fortnight (18 – 31 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated eastward from the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) towards the Western Pacific (Phase 6) in the first two weeks of October. However, most models predict this signal to decay, with no significant MJO activity during the outlook period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

October 1, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (4 – 17 October 2021)

Issued 1 October 2021
First forecast week: 4 October – 10 October
Second forecast week: 11 October – 17 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over much of the northern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 October). In Week 1 (4 – 10 October), wetter conditions are predicted over the Philippines, as well as southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. These wetter conditions are likely to become more widespread in Week 2 (11 – 17 October), covering the Philippines and most of Mainland Southeast Asia, apart from northern Myanmar.

Drier conditions are expected over the western Maritime Continent and parts of Borneo in the next fortnight (4 – 17 October).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (4 – 17 October), including the region where drier conditions are predicted.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal appeared to be developing over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) at the end of September based on the RMM Index. Models predict this signal to propagate eastwards for Week 1 of the forecast period. Some models predict this signal to continue propagating through the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2, while others predict the signal to decay in Phase 5.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

September 17, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (20 September – 3 October 2021)

Issued 17 September 2021
First forecast week: 20 September – 26 September
Second forecast week: 27 September – 3 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected to continue over much of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (20 September – 3 October), with the highest probability for wetter conditions over parts of the southeastern Maritime Continent.

Wetter conditions are also expected in Week 1 (20 – 26 September) over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia as well as the northern half of the Philippines. The wetter conditions over northern Philippines and northern Viet Nam are highly dependent on tropical cyclone development.

No significant regional temperature anomalies are expected in the next fortnight (20 September – 3 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) in the middle of September based on the RMM Index. Most models predict this signal to weaken and become indiscernible around the start of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

September 3, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (6 – 19 September 2021)

Issued 3 September 2021
First forecast week: 6 September – 12 September
Second forecast week: 13 September – 19 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (6 – 19 September) over much of the central and eastern Maritime Continent. Wetter conditions are also expected in Week 1 (6 – 12 September) over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia as well as northern parts of the Philippines. These wetter conditions are generally expected to ease by Week 2 (13 – 19 September), apart from a small increase in probability that the wetter conditions continue for some coastal regions of Myanmar.

Warmer temperatures are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 September).

No coherent MJO signal was present at the start of September. Some models predict an MJO to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1 and then propagate eastwards over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5). There is a large uncertainty in the strength of this MJO signal.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

August 20, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (23 August – 5 September 2021)

Issued 20 August 2021
First forecast week: 23 August – 29 August
Second forecast week: 30 August – 5 September

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected in Week 1 (23 – 29 August) over most of the central and eastern Maritime Continent. These wetter conditions are expected to persist in Week 2 (30 August – 5 September), extending to Java and possibly southern Sumatra.

Elsewhere, wetter conditions are expected in Week 1 (23 – 29 August) over the southern part of Mainland Southeast Asia as well as the coastal parts of Viet Nam. These wetter conditions are generally expected to ease in Week 2 (30 August – 5 September), apart from a small increase in probability that they continue for the coastal regions.

Warmer temperatures are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (23 August – 5 September). Cooler temperatures than usual are expected in Week 1 (23 – 29 August) over parts of the equatorial region as well as parts of the Philippines.

An MJO signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in the middle of August. Most models predict the MJO to weaken and become indiscernible based on the RMM Index in the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

August 6, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (9 – 22 August 2021)

Issued 6 August 2021
First forecast week: 9 August – 15 August
Second forecast week: 16 August – 22 August

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected in Week 1 (9 – 15 August) over most of the southern ASEAN region. These wetter conditions are expected to persist in Week 2 (16 – 22 August) except for parts of the western Maritime Continent.

Drier conditions are expected in Week 1 (9 – 15 August) over western parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.

Warmer temperatures than usual are expected in Week 1 (9 – 15 August) over most of Mainland Southeast Asia, easing in Week 2 (16 – 22 August). Elsewhere, warmer temperatures are also expected over southern parts of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (9 – 22 August).

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected in Week 2 (16 – 22 August) over parts of the central Maritime Continent.

An MJO signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) at the beginning of August, although the signal was no longer discernible based on the RMM Index by the start of the forecast period. Some models predict the MJO to reemerge in Week 1 (either in Phase 1 or Phase 2) and continue propagating eastwards over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

July 23, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (26 July – 8 August 2021)

Issued 23 July 2021
First forecast week: 26 July – 1 August
Second forecast week: 2 August – 8 August

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (26 July – 8 August) over much of the northern ASEAN region. While the outlook is for generally drier than average conditions for the area outlined, there still may be isolated regions of wetter than average rainfall, particularly for Mainland Southeast Asia.

Wetter conditions are expected in Week 2 (2 – 8 August) over much of the southern and western Maritime Continent.

Warmer temperatures than usual are expected over much of the ASEAN region during the next fortnight (26 July – 8 August), apart from northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia.

An MJO signal was present over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in the middle of July. Most models predict the MJO to weaken as it moves over the Western Pacific (Phase 6) at the start of Week 1 (26 July – 1 August).

July 9, 2021

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (12 – 25 July 2021)

Issued 9 July 2021
First forecast week: 12 July – 18 July
Second forecast week: 19 July – 25 July

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected in Week 1 (12 – 18 July) over much of the central and eastern Maritime Continent, as well as the southeastern part of Mainland Southeast Asia. In Week 2 (19 – 25 July), these wetter conditions are expected to ease, apart from over the southeastern part of the Maritime Continent.

Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (12 – 25 July) over parts of the western Maritime Continent. These drier conditions may extend eastwards in Week 2 (19 – 25 July) to cover western parts of Borneo.

Warmer temperatures than usual are expected over the southern part of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (12 – 18 July). These warmer conditions are expected to extend to most of the Maritime Continent and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (19 – 25 July).

An MJO signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) at the beginning of July. Some models predict the MJO to continue propagating eastwards over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5).