Category Archives: Regional Weather Outlook for Year 2019

January 28, 2019

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Jan – 31 Jan 2019)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 Jan – 31 Jan 2019)

Issued 26 Jan 2019
valid for weeks 3 and 4: 16 Jan – 31 Jan

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Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

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Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
Under the prevailing Northeast Monsoon condition, weather over the northern ASEAN region is expected to remain dry while scattered rain showers are expected over the southern ASEAN region.

No significant regional-scale rainfall anomaly is expected for most parts of the region, but coastal Viet Nam may experience wetter-than-normal weather in Week 3 due to a strengthening of northeasterly winds. Warmer temperatures experienced in many parts of western Southeast Asia region are expected to ease.

The MJO that has been active in the Pacific Ocean is expected to rapidly weaken by the start of the fortnight. However, it may re-emerge in the Indian Ocean or the western Maritime Continent during Week 4.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

January 2, 2019

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Jan – 15 Jan 2019)

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Jan – 15 Jan 2019)

Issued 2 Jan 2019
valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 Jan – 15 Jan

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Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

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Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 
In the first week of the fortnight, a northeast monsoon surge is expected to bring wetter conditions over the South China Sea and over coastal Thailand and Viet Nam. Elsewhere in the Mekong sub-region, cooler conditions can be expected. The stronger monsoonal winds are likely to bring wetter weather to areas around the Java Sea as well. Conversely drier conditions are expected over the Philippines.

By week 2, the wetter conditions over the South China Sea are likely to spread southward to affect the north-eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. Areas around the Java Sea are likely to become drier during the week.

The MJO is currently active in the western Pacific Ocean and is expected to continue propagating eastward. However, the strength and speed of the MJO are uncertain.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.