Category Archives: Regional Weather Outlook for Year 2022

August 5, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (8 – 21 August 2022)

Issued: 5 August 2022
First forecast week: 8 August – 14 August
Second forecast week: 15 August – 21 August

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (8 – 21 August). Wetter conditions are also predicted in Week 1 (8 – 14 August) over much of the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines.

Drier conditions are predicted in Week 1 (8 – 14 August) over the western equatorial region. These drier conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (15 – 21 August), apart from over southern Mainland Southeast Asia.

For temperature, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over parts of the southern Maritime Continent during the next fortnight (8 – 21 August). In Week 1 (8 – 14 August), in line with the predicted rainfall conditions, warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the western equatorial region and cooler than usual temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.

No clear Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the start of August based on the RMM Index. No significant MJO activity is predicted during most of the forecast period, although some models suggest an MJO signal may develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) towards the end of Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

July 22, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (25 July – 7 August 2022)

Issued: 22 July 2022
First forecast week: 25 July – 31 July
Second forecast week: 1 August – 7 August

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over most of the equatorial ASEAN region in the next fortnight (25 July – 7 August). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions are predicted over the western Maritime Continent and the central parts of equatorial region in Week 1 (25 – 31 July), and over the central-eastern parts of equatorial region in Week 2 (1 – 7 August).

Drier conditions are expected over Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (25 – 31 July). These drier conditions are expected to ease in Week 2 (1 – 7 August), apart from over southern half of Myanmar.

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the northern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (25 July – 7 August).

By the second week of July, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal had decayed over the eastern Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and became indiscernible based on the RMM index. Most models predict the MJO signal to emerge over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) during the start of the forecast period, and to propagate eastwards over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) by Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

July 8, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (11 – 24 July 2022)

Issued: 8 July 2022
First forecast week: 11 July – 17 July
Second forecast week: 18 July – 24 July

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern and eastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (11 – 24 July). Wetter conditions are also expected over much of the central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (11 – 17 July) and predicted to ease over southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (18 – 24 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most of Myanmar in the next fortnight (11 – 24 July).

Since early July, a moderate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was present over the western Maritime Continent (Phase 4). While some models predict this signal to continue propagating through the eastern Maritime Continent (Phase 5) and Western Pacific (Phase 6) by Week 2, others predict the MJO signal to decay.

June 24, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (27 June – 10 July 2022)

Issued: 24 June 2022
First forecast week: 27 June – 3 July
Second forecast week: 4 July – 10 July

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (27 June – 10 July). Wetter conditions are also expected over northern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines in Week 1 (27 June – 3 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the southeastern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (27 June – 10 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (27 June – 3 July) and predicted to persist over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (4 – 10 July).

In the third week of June, there were signs of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) based on the RMM Index. Most models predict an MJO signal to develop and propagate eastwards through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in Week 1. Some models predict the MJO signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

June 10, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (13 – 26 June 2022)

Issued: 10 June 2022
First forecast week: 13 June – 19 June
Second forecast week: 20 June – 26 June

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For rainfall, wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern ASEAN region in the next fortnight (13 – 26 June). Drier conditions are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (13 – 19 June).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperatures are expected over much of the western and central equatorial region in the next fortnight (13 – 26 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) in the second week of June based on the RMM Index. Most models predict this MJO signal to decay in Week 1 with no significant MJO activity for the rest of the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

May 27, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (30 May – 12 June 2022)

Issued: 27 May 2022
First forecast week: 30 May – 5 June
Second forecast week: 6 June – 12 June

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

For rainfall, wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (30 May – 12 June). Drier conditions are expected over much of the eastern half of the equatorial region in Week 1 (30 May – 5 June). In Week 2 (6 June – 12 June), drier conditions are expected over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.

For temperature, warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the southeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (30 May – 5 June). These warmer conditions may ease in Week 2 (6 June – 12 June). Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the Philippines in Week 1.

There was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal present towards the end of May based on the RMM index. An MJO signal is expected to emerge over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) and then propagate to the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) in Week 1. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay in Week 2.

May 13, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (16 – 29 May 2022)

Issued: 13 May 2022
First forecast week: 16 May – 22 May
Second forecast week: 23 May – 29 May

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (16 – 29 May). The highest likelihood of wetter conditions is over parts of Myanmar and Thailand in Week 1 (16 – 22 May). Wetter conditions are also expected over much of the northern half of the Philippines in Week 1.

Drier conditions are expected to develop over much of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (16 – 29 May). In Week 1 (16 – 22 May), drier conditions are expected in the western Maritime Continent and easternmost part of the equatorial region. In Week 2 (23 – 29 May), these drier conditions are predicted to extend to cover most of the equatorial region.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (16 May – 29 May) with the highest likelihood over northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the western half of the equatorial region over the next fortnight (16 May – 29 May).

A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) in the beginning of May. Models predict the MJO signal to be over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of forecast period. This signal is predicted to decay over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8) during Week 1.

April 29, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (2 – 15 May 2022)

Issued: 29 April 2022
First forecast week: 2 May – 8 May
Second forecast week: 9 May – 15 May

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over the northwestern part of the ASEAN region in Week 1 (2 May – 8 May), including Myanmar, southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of the western Maritime Continent. These wetter conditions are predicted to ease in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May), apart from over most of Myanmar.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over most of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (2 May – 8 May). The highest likelihood for cooler temperatures is over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. These cooler temperatures are predicted to ease in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May), except for parts of Myanmar, in line with the wetter conditions predicted.

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over the equatorial region in Week 2 (9 May – 15 May).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of April. Models predict the MJO signal to remain weak or indiscernible for the next fortnight.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

April 14, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (18 April – 1 May 2022)

Issued: 14 April 2022
First forecast week: 18 April – 24 April
Second forecast week: 25 April – 1 May

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 April – 1 May). Wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 April), covering the eastern half of Myanmar and western half of Thailand.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (18 – 24 April).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first two weeks of April. While some models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period, others predict MJO activity in the Western Pacific (Phase 7) and the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

April 1, 2022

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (4 – 17 April 2022)

Issued: 1 April 2022
First forecast week: 4 April – 10 April
Second forecast week: 11 April – 17 April

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Wetter conditions are expected over the band covering the Malay Peninsula, southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and the Philippines in Week 1 (4 – 10 April). These wetter conditions are expected to persist for much of the region in Week 2 (11 – 17 April), apart from over parts of the Malay Peninsula and southern Philippines.

Drier conditions are predicted for much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent over the next fortnight (4 – 17 April). Drier conditions are also predicted over central and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (4 – 10 April) only.

Warmer conditions than usual are predicted over much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (4 – 17 April), in line with the drier conditions predicted. Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (4 – 10 April).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present at the end of March. Most models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.