Category Archives: Uncategorized

MEDIA RELEASE

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION

Increased risk of fires and transboundary haze in Mekong sub-region

Singapore, 02 January 2025 – The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has issued Alert Level 1 for the northern Southeast Asia region today, indicating the start of the dry season. In recent days, dry conditions were observed over most parts of the Mekong sub-region as the Northeast Monsoon becomes established. The hotspot and smoke haze situation over the sub-region may worsen in the coming months under prolonged dry weather conditions during the season.

2          The hotspot count in the Mekong sub-region has been increasing gradually since mid-December 2024, with a total of 164 and 335 hotspots detected in the sub-region on 31 December 2024 and 1 January 2025 respectively. While some localised smoke plumes/haze were detected in parts of Cambodia, Lao PDR and Thailand, no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.

3          Neutral or short-lived La Niña conditions are expected during the beginning of 2025, which could contribute to wetter-than-average conditions over some parts of the Southeast Asia region. However, its effects on rainfall may not be pronounced over the Mekong sub-region and there may still be a risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze in the sub-region.

4          For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.

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MEDIA RELEASE

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN ASEAN REGION

Risk of hotspot and smoke haze development, despite possible La Niña conditions

Singapore, 17 July 2024 – Many parts of the southern ASEAN region^[1] have started to experience persistent drier weather conditions in recent days. This is due to a strengthening of the prevailing Southwest Monsoon, which causes the monsoon rainband to move further north of the Equator, away from the region. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has hence issued Alert Level 1 for the southern ASEAN region on 17 July 2024, indicating the start of the dry season that is expected to last till September 2024.

2      With the drier conditions, there has been an increase in hotspot activity in the southern ASEAN region in the past few days. A total of 33 and 44 hotspots were detected on 15 July 2024 and 16 July 2024 respectively. Localised smoke plumes were observed to emanate from a few hotspots in Sumatra on some days.

3      The conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña²), with a possibility of La Niña conditions developing in the second half of the year. Based on the latest climate outlook, ASMC expects above-normal rainfall over most parts of the southern ASEAN region in the coming months. However, there is still a risk of hotspot and smoke haze development in the fire-prone areas, particularly during drier periods. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region.

4        For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.

[1] The southern ASEAN region comprises Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and southern Thailand.

[2] La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter conditions to many parts of the southern ASEAN region.

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Subseasonal Weather Outlook (19 February – 3 March 2024)

Issued: 16 February 2024
First forecast week: 19 – 25 February 2024
Second forecast week: 26 February – 3 March 2024

MEDIA RELEASE

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION

Increased risk of fires and transboundary haze in Mekong sub-region

Singapore, 14 December 2023 – The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has today issued Alert Level 1 for the northern Southeast Asia region, indicating the start of the dry season. Dry weather conditions have been observed across the Mekong sub-region, particularly in parts of Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR in recent days, as the Northeast Monsoon becomes firmly established. A deterioration in the hotspot and smoke haze situation may occur in the coming months with the setting in of dry weather conditions.

2        The hotspot count in the Mekong sub-region has been increasing gradually, with a total of 52 and 43 hotspots detected in the sub-region on 12 December 2023 and 13 December 2023 respectively. A few localised smoke plumes were detected in parts of Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.

3        Current El Niño¹ conditions are expected to persist at least until February – March 2024. This may result in warmer and drier than average conditions over some parts of the northern Southeast Asia region, with a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze occurrence in the Mekong sub-region. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region.

4        For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.

[1] El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with changes in both the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, including an abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Typically lasting 9-12 months and occurring every three-five years, it produces widespread and at times severe changes in the global climate.

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MEDIA RELEASE
 

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN ASEAN REGION

Singapore, 29 May 2023 – The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has issued Alert Level 1 today, indicating the start of the dry season associated with the Southwest Monsoon in the southern ASEAN region. Persistent drier weather has been observed over most parts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and southern Thailand in recent days, as the monsoon rain band moves north of the Equator. With a high likelihood of El Niño¹ conditions developing in the coming months, the dry season is expected to be more intense and prolonged compared to recent years, and extend into October 2023.

2 Presently, hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are still subdued with 14 and 13 hotspots detected in the southern ASEAN region on 27 May 2023 and 28 May 2023 respectively. A few localised smoke plumes were detected in parts of the region on some days in May 2023, but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.

3 Since earlier this year, warmer subsurface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is an early sign that support El Niño conditions developing in the next few months. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole² , which suppresses cloud formation over certain parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, may develop in the next one to two months. Both climate phenomena typically bring drier and warmer conditions to many parts of the southern ASEAN region.

4 ASMC assesses that there is a higher risk of escalated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze occurrence in the southern ASEAN region between June and October 2023, compared to the last three years when the dry season was moderated by prolonged La Niña conditions. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of fires and transboundary haze in the region.

5 For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.
 
 
[1] El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with changes in both the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, including an abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Typically lasting 9-12 months and occurring every three to five years, it produces widespread and at times severe changes in the global climate.
[2] The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is similar to the El Niño, but occurs in the equatorial Indian Ocean and of shorter duration, typically ending by December-January. The IOD varies between three phases – positive, negative and neutral.
 

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MEDIA RELEASE

WIDESPREAD SMOKE HAZE IN THE MEKONG SUB-REGION UNDER PREVAILING DRY WEATHER

Singapore, 2 March 2023 – The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has raised the Alert Level for early warning of transboundary smoke haze in the Mekong sub-region1 to the highest level (Alert Level 3) on 2 March 2023. With persistent dry weather conditions expected, there may be a worsening in transboundary smoke haze situation in the coming weeks.

2 Hotspot and smoke haze activities in the Mekong sub-region have escalated since the start of the northern ASEAN dry season in December 2022. Based on NOAA-202 satellite surveillance, a total of 1180 and 1636 hotspots were detected in the Mekong sub-region on 28 February 2023 and 1 March 2023 respectively. Widespread moderate to dense smoke haze was observed over northern Lao PDR, northern and central parts of Thailand, as well as central and southern parts of Myanmar in the past few days. Many air quality stations in the central and northern Mekong sub-region also reported air quality at the unhealthy to very unhealthy levels.

3 The prevailing low-level winds in the Mekong sub-region are forecast to continue blowing from the northeast in the coming days, which will contribute to a high risk of transboundary haze occurrence. Existing La Niña3 conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to weaken to neutral in March or April 2023. Although near-to-above normal rainfall is predicted for the Mekong sub-region in the coming months, prolonged dry periods are still expected, and the hotspot and smoke haze situation is likely to stay elevated till the end of the traditional dry season in May 2023.

4 For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.

[1] The Mekong sub-region comprises of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
[2] The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-20 (NOAA-20) satellite monitors global environmental conditions and collects and disseminates data related to weather, land and oceans.
[3] La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter conditions to most parts of the ASEAN region.

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MEDIA RELEASE
 

START OF DRY SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN ASEAN REGION

Singapore, 15 December 2022 – According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the Northeast Monsoon season has become established over the ASEAN region in the past few weeks. This signals the onset of the traditional dry season in the northern ASEAN region¹, which is likely to extend into May 2023. During this period, prolonged dry weather can be expected as the monsoon rainband moves south of the Equator and dry northeasterly winds blow from continental Asia over the northern ASEAN region.

2 The prevailing La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to weaken and turn neutral by early 2023. The ongoing negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also forecast to transition to a neutral phase by end of 2022². The return to neutral phase does not mean that weather conditions will necessarily be near their long-term average. Based on seasonal forecasts for the December 2022 to March 2023 period, the northern and western parts of the Mekong sub-region are expected to experience below-average rainfall, while near- to above-average rainfall is forecast for most other parts of the northern ASEAN region.

3 During this traditional dry season, fire hotspots and smoke haze may develop during extended periods of dry and warm weather, especially in parts of the Mekong sub-region where below-average rainfall is forecast. During the Northeast Monsoon, the low-level winds in the region typically blow from the northeast or east and transboundary haze may occur if the winds blow any smoke haze from fires to neighbouring countries. Early precautionary and mitigation measures are advised to prevent the occurrence of transboundary haze in the region.

4 For regular and ad-hoc updates of the regional weather and smoke haze situation and early warnings, please visit the ASMC website at https://asmc.asean.org.
 
 
[1] The northern ASEAN region comprises of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam.
[2] Both La Niña and negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to most parts of the ASEAN region.
 

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