Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Drier conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (22 June – 5 July). The highest chance of drier conditions is over the central and eastern equatorial region in Week 1 (22 – 28 June), and over the eastern equatorial region in Week 2 (29 June – 5 July).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (29 June – 5 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (22 June – 5 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over most of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (22 – 28 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) in the middle of June 2026, based on the RMM Index. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay and become indiscernible by the start of the forecast period. Most of these models also predict an emergence of an MJO signal over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) or the Western Pacific (Phase 6) during the forecast period (22 June – 5 July), with uncertainty in the timing.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Drier conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (22 June – 5 July). The highest chance of drier conditions is over the central and eastern equatorial region in Week 1 (22 – 28 June), and over the eastern equatorial region in Week 2 (29 June – 5 July).

Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent and much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (29 June – 5 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (22 June – 5 July). Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over most of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (22 – 28 June).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 1) in the middle of June 2026, based on the RMM Index. Most models predict the MJO signal to decay and become indiscernible by the start of the forecast period. Most of these models also predict an emergence of an MJO signal over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) or the Western Pacific (Phase 6) during the forecast period (22 June – 5 July), with uncertainty in the timing.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.