Category Archives: events

CR58

February 28, 2023

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2023 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 21 – 23 February 2023

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2023 for the ASEAN Region, Singapore 21 – 23 February 2023

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted the Hotspot and Haze Assessment Workshop for ASEAN Member States over three days from 21-23 February 2023 at the Furama City Centre in Singapore. This workshop is part of a series of workshops and fora held under the ASMC Regional Capability-building Programme (ACaP) which has been extended till 2027. This marked the first time since 2020 that this workshop was held physically, with virtual workshops conducted in recent years during the pandemic.

The workshop served to bring together stakeholders from the environment and meteorological sectors to learn and share on their home country experiences in preparation for the dry season. Topics covered during the workshop included remote sensing, fire and haze detection using satellites, sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, meteorological instrumentation and dispersion modelling. Lecturers were from the ASMC as well as from Met Malaysia, who presented on the Fire Rating Danger System (FDRS) for Southeast Asia. Representatives from the ASEAN Environment Division were also present at the workshop.

Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.
Figure 1: The participants posed for a group photograph with staff from ASMC

Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.
Figure 2: ASMC Director of Operations, Mr Lesley Choo officiates the opening of the workshop.

The Workshop included a mix of lectures, discussions and quizzes to introduce participants to key concepts required to utilise meteorological products for fires and haze monitoring, assessment and prediction. Participants also had the opportunity to visit the ASMC operations and satellite centre, as well as a local air quality monitoring station during the workshop. Participants shared at the end of the workshop that that the lectures covered were beneficial and very informative and appreciated the activities, preparations, as well as sharing sessions conducted during the workshop.

Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.
Figure 3: Activities conducted during the workshop were well-received by the participants.

Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.
Figure 4: Participants listening intently during the tour of the ASMC Operations Centre.

November 30, 2022

19th ASEAN COF (Nov 2022, Online)

Nineteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-19)

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21 to 25 Nov 2022, MSS

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2022/2023 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The Nineteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-19) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) in collaboration with ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2022-2023 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2022-2023 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different Global Producing Centres (GPCs), NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia. The theme of ASEANCOF-19 was climate services for agriculture. On the last day of ASEANCOF-19, a webinar was held involving both producers and users of seasonal outlooks, including presentations on using climate services for agriculture.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows below-average SSTs across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean indicative of La Niña.

The international climate outlook predicts that the La Niña is likely to weaken during DJF 2022/2023, although overall still indicates La Niña conditions. After DJF 2022/2023, most models predict the ENSO state to gradually return to neutral.

While a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was present for much of the second half of 2022, models predict the IOD to return to neutral by the end of 2022.

The onset of the Northeast monsoon season has been or is expected to be near average in many parts of the region. Over much of Southeast Asia, the strength of the Northeast monsoon is expected to be near average or stronger than average, based on model predictions and supported by the La Niña conditions.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be near average in the Bay of Bengal and around the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs, ASEANCOF-19 agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2022/2023 over the ASEAN region:

RAINFALL

Over the Maritime Continent, a mix of below to above normal rainfall is predicted. In particular, near to above normal rainfall is most likely over much of the Philippines and Brunei Darussalam, while near normal rainfall is most likely over much of Malaysia and Singapore.

Over Mainland Southeast Asia, below normal rainfall is most likely over northern parts, including northern Myanmar as well as northern Viet Nam. Above normal rainfall is most likely over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, including southern Thailand, parts of Cambodia, and southern Viet Nam. Elsewhere, near normal rainfall is predicted.1

1This is based on the climatology period 1991-2020. However, at the national level, Myanmar is using the 1981-2010 climatology as their base period.

TEMPERATURE

Over the ASEAN region, a mix of below- to above-normal temperature is predicted. Above normal temperature is most likely over parts of Myanmar, northwestern Viet Nam and the eastern Maritime Continent, while below to near normal temperature is most likely over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, near or near to above normal temperature is predicted.2

2This is based on the climatology period 1991-2020. However, at the national level, Myanmar is using the 1981-2010 climatology as their base period.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2022/2023 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2022/2023 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-19 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the GPCs, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, RIMES, UN ESCAP, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

June 3, 2022

18th ASEAN COF (May 2022, Online)

Eighteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-18)

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24 and 26 May 2022, PAGASA
 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2022 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.
 
The Eighteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-18) was organised by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in collaboration with the ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2022 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2022 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions in the Southeast Asia region. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia. There was also a special focus on monsoon variability, with a presentation from the Regional Working Group on Asian-Australian Monsoon (AAM-WG).

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific show below average SSTs across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean indicative of La Niña. The international climate outlooks predict that the La Niña is likely to weaken during JJA 2022, although still overall indicate La Niña conditions. After JJA 2022, most models predict the ENSO state to be either cool ENSO neutral or La Niña.

The current IOD state is neutral. Most models predict a negative IOD developing during JJA 2022, with some models predicting the said negative IOD to be strong.

The onset of the Southwest Monsoon season has been earlier than normal in many parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and near normal in the Maritime Continent. Over much of Southeast Asia, the strength of the Southwest Monsoon is expected to be near normal or weaker than normal, based on model predictions.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be near average in the Bay of Bengal, while below to near average around the South China Sea and in the Philippine Sea. As there is an expected weakening of La Niña in JJA 2022, no significant deviation from the climatology of tropical cyclone frequency is expected during the forecast period.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the global prediction centres (GPCs), the ASEANCOF-18 agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2022 in the ASEAN region:

 

RAINFALL

Over much of the southern ASEAN region, near to above normal rainfall is predicted. Near to above normal rainfall is predicted over Brunei Darussalam and many parts of Malaysia, with above normal rainfall predicted most elsewhere. The exceptions include parts of the western and eastern Maritime Continent, where near to below normal rainfall is predicted.

Over much of the northern ASEAN region, a mix of below to above normal rainfall is predicted. Near to below normal rainfall is predicted over the western and southeast portion of Mainland Southeast Asia, and northwest Philippines. Near to above normal rainfall is predicted over portions of northeast and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and southern Philippines. Elsewhere in the northern ASEAN region, near normal rainfall is predicted.

TEMPERATURE

Near to above normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region. The highest likelihood of above normal temperature is over the southern Maritime Continent and Lao PDR, while near normal temperature is predicted over northern Myanmar, northern and central Viet Nam, and parts of the western Maritime Continent. An equal chance of near to above normal temperature is predicted over southern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei Darussalam.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for JJA 2022 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2022 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).
 

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-18 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

ASEANCOF would like to convey its appreciation to the NMHSs of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national level forecasts, the GPCs, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and the World Meteorological Organization Regional Office in Asia and the Southwest Pacific (WMO-RAP) for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

February 28, 2022

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2022 for the ASEAN Region, online 22 – 23 February 2022

Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop 2022 for the ASEAN Region, online 22 – 23 February 2022

ASMC has conducted six workshops on hotspot and haze assessment since 2018 under its Regional Capability Building Programme for ASEAN Member States. This year a combined workshop was held for both the Mekong sub-region and southern ASEAN region, bringing together participants from both regions to discuss and share on common regional issues in fires and haze monitoring, mitigation and control.

The H2A 2022 Workshop for the ASEAN region was held online over two days on 22 -23 February 2022 and welcomed more than 42 participants from environment and disaster management sectors in countries around the ASEAN region, including Brunei, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam. Representatives from the Environment Division of the ASEAN Secretariat (ASEC) were also in attendance.

Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.
Figure 1: Group photo of participants and lecturers at the 2022 H2A workshop.

During the workshop, there were engaging discussions by participants on local issues in fires management, monitoring and suppression, as well as air quality and haze conditions in 2021. Participants also actively partook in quizzes and activities during the lectures on interpretation of satellite imageries, satellite technologies and products, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, and dispersion modelling. The workshop participants were updated on the review and outlook of regional weather, climate and haze situation to help them better prepare for the possibility of fires and smoke haze development in their respective countries during the upcoming months.

Dr Vong Sok, Head of Environment Division at ASEC expressed his appreciation to the workshop organisers and speakers at the end of the session and welcomed the opportunity to learn about the technical analysis and assessments at the ASMC, which is useful to support their work in the region. Ms Naila Athifa, Environmental Officer from Department of Environment, Brunei Darussalam also opined that the quizzes were a nice touch to allow interaction and check the understanding of participants.

Figure 2: Lecturers introduced participants to a range of topics relevant to fires and smoke haze monitoring and assessment in the ASEAN region
Figure 2: Lecturers introduced participants to a range of topics relevant to fires and smoke haze monitoring and assessment in the ASEAN region

Going forward, ASMC will plan further workshops in numerical weather prediction, climate change projections, subseasonal and seasonal predictions, as well as haze monitoring to further advance regional capabilities in issues relating to weather, climate and transboundary smoke haze.

December 1, 2021

17th ASEAN COF (Nov 2021, Online)

Seventeenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-17)

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22, 23, 24, 26 November 2021, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
 

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2021/2022 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The seventeenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-17) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) in conjunction with the ASEANCOF Working Group. Representatives from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2021/2022 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2021/2022 outlooks was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from NMHSs and Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of seasonal outlooks, questionnaires and discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery

 

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicated below-average SSTs across most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Most ENSO indicators are now in line with La Niña conditions. The international climate outlooks predict that La Niña conditions are likely to prevail during DJF 2021/2022. The La Niña conditions are expected to be weak to moderate during this time. Conditions are predicted to weaken in boreal spring 2022.

The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state is neutral and is expected to remain neutral for DJF 2021/2022.

The onset of the Northeast Monsoon season is expected to be or has been near-normal for much of the region, although the onset was earlier than normal for Viet Nam. Over much of Southeast Asia, the strength of the Northeast monsoon is expected to be near normal or stronger than normal, based on model predictions and supported by the current La Niña conditions.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be above-average for the Bay of Bengal, while near-average around the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea and the Western North Pacific (WNP). This is based on model predictions. During La Niña events, there tends to be more tropical cyclones than average, however, the late onset of the La Niña event as well as its predicted strength means that the increase is not expected to be significant in DJF 2021/2022 for much of the region.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2021/2022 for the Southeast Asia region:

 

RAINFALL

Over much of the Maritime Continent, near- to above-normal rainfall is expected. In particular, above-normal rainfall is predicted for central parts of the Philippines, while near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam.

Over Mainland Southeast Asia, a mix of below- to above- normal rainfall is predicted. Below- to near- normal rainfall is predicted over northern Myanmar, northern Lao PDR, and northern Viet Nam. Above-normal rainfall is predicted over southern Lao PDR, while near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, parts of Cambodia, and southern Viet Nam. Elsewhere in Mainland Southeast Asia rainfall is predicted to be near-normal.

TEMPERATURE

Over much of the Maritime Continent, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. Near-normal temperature is predicted for Brunei Darussalam and northern Philippines, with near- to above-normal and above-normal temperature predicted elsewhere.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, a mix of below- to above-normal temperatures are predicted. The highest likelihood of below-normal temperature is over southern Lao PDR and southern Viet Nam. The highest likelihood of above-normal temperature is over central Myanmar, followed by northern Thailand and northern Lao PDR.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for DJF 2021/2022 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2021/2022 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).
 

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-17 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and WMO for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

September 13, 2021

Third Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (15 – 18 March 2021, Online)

Third Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3)

15 – 18 March 2021, Centre for Climate Research Singapore

The Third Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3) was conducted from 15 – 18 March 2021 on the Zoom platform. This workshop was conducted as part of the ASMC 5-year capability building programme and coordinated by the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), part of the Meteorological Service Singapore. The workshop was led by CCRS scientists and attended by representatives from 10 ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Centres (NMHSs) and relevant agencies, representatives from both WMO’s headquarters and its Regional Office for Asia and the South-West Pacific (RAP), and experts from regional and international institutes.

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Participants of the ARCDAP-3 workshop.

 

The overall objectives of ARCDAP-3 were to assess the region’s understanding of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s (CMIP) latest phases (in particular CMIP6, which builds on CMIP5 most notably through the incorporation of socioecnomic pathways (SSPs) to represent future scenarios, in addition to representative concentration pathways (RCPs)); obtain a shared understanding of CMIP’s current status and latest developments of CMIP6; introduce participants to certain resources for CMIP model evaluation; work towards developing a common framework for studying key regional climate processes; develop a common understanding of suitable global climate models (GCMs) that can be relied upon for the ASEAN region; develop a regional consensus on most relevant emission scenarios to use for regional climate change projections; and link the developed understanding about CMIP databases with existing and on-going projects that generate downscaled climate projections across the ASEAN region.

Participants were first introduced to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and CMIP, followed by a sharing on the technological advancements (e.g. streamlined data tools such as Synda and Pangeo) and notable scientific observations from CMIP6 so far, e.g. higher equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECS) observed by a number of CMIP6 GCMs. The value of CMIP6 data was then demonstrated through seminars led by academic experts on several applications of CMIP6 for the study of important regional climate processes, as well as case studies of how CMIP data has been used to produce national climate change projections by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN), and CCRS. A session was also dedicated towards to the sharing and discussion of regional downscaling results from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Southeast Asia’s (CORDEX-SEA) first phase along with Singapore’s ongoing Third National Climate Change Study (V3) underway at CCRS.

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Some findings from CORDEX-SEA’s first phase which downscaled CMIP5 GCMs.

 

The workshop ended on an optimistic note, with all ASEAN representatives eager to incorporate CMIP6 in their future work. While participants understood the decision to not conduct an extensive hands-on session due to the limitations in a virtual setting, many looked forward to having one involving CMIP6 data in the follow up workshop which will hopefully take place physically, an opinion shared by the organising team as well. Further recommended topics included bias correction, application of extreme indices for impacts assessment and regional model data analysis.

Workshop report

ARCDAP-3 report

August 18, 2021

Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region (1 – 2 July 2021)

Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region (1 – 2 July 2021)

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted a Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region over two days from 1 to 2 July 2021. The Webinar was conducted under the ASMC’s 5-year Regional Capability Programme which was launched in 2018 to address the priority training needs of the ASEAN region.
The Webinar welcomed 14 regional participants from the environmental policy, air quality monitoring, fire and rescue services and meteorological sectors. The participants shared actively on their country’s monitoring of fire and haze and were keen to learn from ASMC on the use of satellites for hotspot and haze monitoring and detection. The workshop included lectures on dispersion modelling, seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction products, as well as latest information of new satellites and satellite products for hotspots and haze monitoring available on the ASMC website.

Participants with the ASMC meteorologists and research scientists in a group photo.

Ms Razatul Aini Binti Razlan, from the Department of Environment in Malaysia shared that the lectures were relevant and useful, and she would recommend the programme to her country officers. She hoped similar training workshops in the future would be opened to more participants and emphasise on the interpretation of satellite images.

Screen shots of the lectures conducted by ASMC meteorologists and research scientists.

In the wake of restrictions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, all of ASMC’s workshops under the 5-year Regional Capability Programme including workshops on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), ASEAN Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) and the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) have moved to an online platform to continuously engage and raise regional capabilities in weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, climate change projections and haze monitoring.

June 2, 2021

16th ASEAN COF (May 2021, Online)

Sixteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-16)

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20, 24 May 2021, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2021 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The sixteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-16) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) in collaboration with the ASEANCOF Working Group. Representatives from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2021 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2021 outlooks was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from NMHSs, questionnaires and discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery

 

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicated near- to below-average SSTs across most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that the previous La Niña event has weakened. Most ENSO indicators are now in line with ENSO-neutral conditions.

The international climate outlooks predict ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to prevail during JJA 2021. After JJA 2021, there is uncertainty whether ENSO neutral conditions will persist, or for La Niña conditions to re-develop.

The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state is neutral and is expected to remain neutral for most of JJA 2021. There is a small increase in chance that a negative IOD event may develop in the second half of the year.
The onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon season is expected to be near-normal (typical) for much of the region, although may be slightly delayed for some northern regions.

Over much of Southeast Asia, the strength of the SW monsoon is expected to be near-normal. The development of a negative IOD event may increase the monsoon strength later in the outlook period. Furthermore, models are predicting the West Pacific Subtropical High to be displaced northward, which would bring near- to above-normal SW monsoon conditions to the Philippines.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be below-average for the Bay of Bengal, while near- to above-average around the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea and the Western North Pacific (WNP). This is due to ENSO-neutral conditions as well as model predictions where above-average tropical cyclone activity in the WNP is forecasted during JJA 2021 with north-westward moving tracks.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2021 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer season (June-July-August 2021), near-normal rainfall is expected for much of the region, including Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Brunei Darussalam, and northern Philippines.

Near- to above-normal rainfall is expected for parts of the Maritime Continent, including Singapore and central and southern Philippines.

TEMPERATURE

Near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia for the June-July-August 2021 season. The regions with the highest likelihood of above-normal temperature includes central Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, and central and southern Viet Nam.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above-, near-, or below-normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for JJA 2021 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2021 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-16 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and WMO for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

February 26, 2021

Webinar on Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region (12-13 January 2021)

ASMC Webinar on Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region (12 – 13 January 2021)

ASMC conducted its first Webinar on “Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region” on 12 – 13 January 2021, as part of ASMC’s 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme. The webinar welcomed a total of 15 participants from Myanmar, Cambodia and Thailand, and included lectures on the use of satellites for fires and haze monitoring, smoke haze dispersion modelling and seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions. The concepts were reinforced through case studies, and a virtual hands-on session facilitated by ASMC’s trainers. The webinar concluded with a review of the current weather and smoke haze situation and the outlook for the Mekong sub-region. The participants also discussed hotspot detection related issues associated with the transition from the use of NOAA-19 to the NOAA-20 satellite.

Figure 1: Examples of the poster and satellite images (with overlay grids) used during the webinar hands-on session where participants were invited to identify possible areas with smoke haze.

The workshop included lectures for participants to gain foundational understanding of topics such as weather systems in Southeast Asia, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, interpretation of satellite imageries, data analysis methodologies, and dispersion modelling as a predictive tool. The lectures were supplemented with hands-on exercises in interpretation of satellite data. The participants also had a short attachment at the ASMC Forecast Office, where they worked with ASMC meteorologists to carry out near real-time assessment of the fire and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region.

Figure 2: A sample of ASMC’s Haze dispersion modelling output of smoke haze in the ASEAN region.

Ms May Yadanar Oo, a webinar participant from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC), Myanmar shared that the topics presented in the webinar were relevant and useful, particularly the lectures on the detection of hotspot and smoke haze using satellites. She hoped that future webinars could continue to include similar topics.

ASMC will be conducting two more workshops in the first half of 2021 as part of ASMC’s 5-year (2018-2022) regional capability building efforts for the ASEAN region, namely the 3rd ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3) and the 2nd lecture series on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (WPNM-M2).

Figure 3: Snapshots of some participants with ASMC trainers at the ASMC Webinar on “Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for Mekong sub-region” held on 12 – 13 January 2021.

December 1, 2020

15th ASEAN COF (Nov 2020, Online)

Fifteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-15)

23, 25, 27 November 2020, Online
 

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2020/2021 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The fifteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-15) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the winter monsoon 2020/2021 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2020/2021 outlook was achieved through online correspondence, including questionnaires and online discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

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Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicated below average SSTs across most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that La Niña conditions are present. The international climate outlooks predict La Niña conditions are very likely to continue during DJF 2020/2021. The La Niña conditions are expected to be moderate to strong during this time. La Niña conditions are expected to weaken during the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) spring.

The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state is neutral and is expected to remain neutral for DJF 2020/2021.

The Northeast (NE) Monsoon is expected to be stronger than normal, based on model predictions and supported by the current La Niña conditions. For most countries, the onset of the NE monsoon is expected to be near-normal, or slightly earlier.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be above average for the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and around the Philippine Sea. This is based on model predictions as well as during La Niña events there tends to be more tropical cyclones than average for the region.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2020/2021 for the Southeast Asia region:

 

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (December- January- February 2020/2021), near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over much of the region (Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and southern parts of Myanmar and Viet Nam). The highest probabilities of above-normal rainfall are over Brunei Darussalam, southern Thailand, and parts of Malaysia and the Philippines. Elsewhere, near-normal or a range of below-normal to above-normal rainfall is predicted.

TEMPERATURE

For the southern half of Southeast Asia near-normal to above-normal temperature is predicted, including Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the southern half of the Philippines. In the northern half of Southeast Asia, near-normal to below-normal temperature is expected for parts of Lao PDR and Viet Nam. An increased chance of above-normal temperature is expected over northern Thailand and northern Lao PDR. Elsewhere, near-normal temperature is expected, particularly over most of Thailand, Myanmar and northern Philippines. On top of these temperature outlook, there may be increased chance of cold surges due to the stronger Northeast Monsoon predicted for the coming December-January-February 2020/2021 season.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for DJF 2020/2021 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2020/2021 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

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PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-15 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international and regional centres for sharing their products and expertise, and WMO for their continued support of ASEANCOF. The Forum would also like to thank the participants from the disaster risk reduction sector who attended the final day of the forum, sharing valuable insights into how to make seasonal outlooks more useful in the ASEAN region.