Category Archives: events

CR58

August 18, 2021

Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region (1 – 2 July 2021)

Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region (1 – 2 July 2021)

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted a Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN region over two days from 1 to 2 July 2021. The Webinar was conducted under the ASMC’s 5-year Regional Capability Programme which was launched in 2018 to address the priority training needs of the ASEAN region.
The Webinar welcomed 14 regional participants from the environmental policy, air quality monitoring, fire and rescue services and meteorological sectors. The participants shared actively on their country’s monitoring of fire and haze and were keen to learn from ASMC on the use of satellites for hotspot and haze monitoring and detection. The workshop included lectures on dispersion modelling, seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction products, as well as latest information of new satellites and satellite products for hotspots and haze monitoring available on the ASMC website.

Participants with the ASMC meteorologists and research scientists in a group photo.

Ms Razatul Aini Binti Razlan, from the Department of Environment in Malaysia shared that the lectures were relevant and useful, and she would recommend the programme to her country officers. She hoped similar training workshops in the future would be opened to more participants and emphasise on the interpretation of satellite images.

Screen shots of the lectures conducted by ASMC meteorologists and research scientists.

In the wake of restrictions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, all of ASMC’s workshops under the 5-year Regional Capability Programme including workshops on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), ASEAN Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) and the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) have moved to an online platform to continuously engage and raise regional capabilities in weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, climate change projections and haze monitoring.

June 2, 2021

16th ASEAN COF (May 2021, Online)

Sixteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-16)

image_gallery

20, 24 May 2021, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2021 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.

The sixteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-16) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) in collaboration with the ASEANCOF Working Group. Representatives from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2021 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2021 outlooks was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from NMHSs, questionnaires and discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery

 

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicated near- to below-average SSTs across most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that the previous La Niña event has weakened. Most ENSO indicators are now in line with ENSO-neutral conditions.

The international climate outlooks predict ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to prevail during JJA 2021. After JJA 2021, there is uncertainty whether ENSO neutral conditions will persist, or for La Niña conditions to re-develop.

The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state is neutral and is expected to remain neutral for most of JJA 2021. There is a small increase in chance that a negative IOD event may develop in the second half of the year.
The onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon season is expected to be near-normal (typical) for much of the region, although may be slightly delayed for some northern regions.

Over much of Southeast Asia, the strength of the SW monsoon is expected to be near-normal. The development of a negative IOD event may increase the monsoon strength later in the outlook period. Furthermore, models are predicting the West Pacific Subtropical High to be displaced northward, which would bring near- to above-normal SW monsoon conditions to the Philippines.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be below-average for the Bay of Bengal, while near- to above-average around the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea and the Western North Pacific (WNP). This is due to ENSO-neutral conditions as well as model predictions where above-average tropical cyclone activity in the WNP is forecasted during JJA 2021 with north-westward moving tracks.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2021 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer season (June-July-August 2021), near-normal rainfall is expected for much of the region, including Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Brunei Darussalam, and northern Philippines.

Near- to above-normal rainfall is expected for parts of the Maritime Continent, including Singapore and central and southern Philippines.

TEMPERATURE

Near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia for the June-July-August 2021 season. The regions with the highest likelihood of above-normal temperature includes central Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, and central and southern Viet Nam.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above-, near-, or below-normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for JJA 2021 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2021 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

image007

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-16 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network, and other partners of ASEANCOF for sharing their products and expertise, and WMO for their continued support of ASEANCOF.

February 26, 2021

Webinar on Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region (12-13 January 2021)

ASMC Webinar on Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region (12 – 13 January 2021)

ASMC conducted its first Webinar on “Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for the Mekong sub-region” on 12 – 13 January 2021, as part of ASMC’s 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme. The webinar welcomed a total of 15 participants from Myanmar, Cambodia and Thailand, and included lectures on the use of satellites for fires and haze monitoring, smoke haze dispersion modelling and seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions. The concepts were reinforced through case studies, and a virtual hands-on session facilitated by ASMC’s trainers. The webinar concluded with a review of the current weather and smoke haze situation and the outlook for the Mekong sub-region. The participants also discussed hotspot detection related issues associated with the transition from the use of NOAA-19 to the NOAA-20 satellite.

Figure 1: Examples of the poster and satellite images (with overlay grids) used during the webinar hands-on session where participants were invited to identify possible areas with smoke haze.

The workshop included lectures for participants to gain foundational understanding of topics such as weather systems in Southeast Asia, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, interpretation of satellite imageries, data analysis methodologies, and dispersion modelling as a predictive tool. The lectures were supplemented with hands-on exercises in interpretation of satellite data. The participants also had a short attachment at the ASMC Forecast Office, where they worked with ASMC meteorologists to carry out near real-time assessment of the fire and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region.

Figure 2: A sample of ASMC’s Haze dispersion modelling output of smoke haze in the ASEAN region.

Ms May Yadanar Oo, a webinar participant from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC), Myanmar shared that the topics presented in the webinar were relevant and useful, particularly the lectures on the detection of hotspot and smoke haze using satellites. She hoped that future webinars could continue to include similar topics.

ASMC will be conducting two more workshops in the first half of 2021 as part of ASMC’s 5-year (2018-2022) regional capability building efforts for the ASEAN region, namely the 3rd ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3) and the 2nd lecture series on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (WPNM-M2).

Figure 3: Snapshots of some participants with ASMC trainers at the ASMC Webinar on “Fires/Smoke Haze Monitoring and Detection for Mekong sub-region” held on 12 – 13 January 2021.

December 1, 2020

15th ASEAN COF (Nov 2020, Online)

Fifteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-15)

23, 25, 27 November 2020, Online
 

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2020/2021 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The fifteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-15) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the winter monsoon 2020/2021 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2020/2021 outlook was achieved through online correspondence, including questionnaires and online discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery

 

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicated below average SSTs across most of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that La Niña conditions are present. The international climate outlooks predict La Niña conditions are very likely to continue during DJF 2020/2021. The La Niña conditions are expected to be moderate to strong during this time. La Niña conditions are expected to weaken during the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) spring.

The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state is neutral and is expected to remain neutral for DJF 2020/2021.

The Northeast (NE) Monsoon is expected to be stronger than normal, based on model predictions and supported by the current La Niña conditions. For most countries, the onset of the NE monsoon is expected to be near-normal, or slightly earlier.

Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be above average for the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and around the Philippine Sea. This is based on model predictions as well as during La Niña events there tends to be more tropical cyclones than average for the region.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2020/2021 for the Southeast Asia region:

 

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (December- January- February 2020/2021), near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over much of the region (Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and southern parts of Myanmar and Viet Nam). The highest probabilities of above-normal rainfall are over Brunei Darussalam, southern Thailand, and parts of Malaysia and the Philippines. Elsewhere, near-normal or a range of below-normal to above-normal rainfall is predicted.

TEMPERATURE

For the southern half of Southeast Asia near-normal to above-normal temperature is predicted, including Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the southern half of the Philippines. In the northern half of Southeast Asia, near-normal to below-normal temperature is expected for parts of Lao PDR and Viet Nam. An increased chance of above-normal temperature is expected over northern Thailand and northern Lao PDR. Elsewhere, near-normal temperature is expected, particularly over most of Thailand, Myanmar and northern Philippines. On top of these temperature outlook, there may be increased chance of cold surges due to the stronger Northeast Monsoon predicted for the coming December-January-February 2020/2021 season.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for DJF 2020/2021 Season

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2020/2021 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

image007

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008
 

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-15 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international and regional centres for sharing their products and expertise, and WMO for their continued support of ASEANCOF. The Forum would also like to thank the participants from the disaster risk reduction sector who attended the final day of the forum, sharing valuable insights into how to make seasonal outlooks more useful in the ASEAN region.

May 30, 2020

14th ASEAN COF (21 May 2020, Online Correspondence)

Fourteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-14)

21st May 2020, Online Correspondence
 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2020 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The fourteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-14) was organised by Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the summer monsoon 2020 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2020 outlooks was achieved through online correspondence, including questionnaires and online discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum considered the possible influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery

 

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicate near average SSTs and ENSO neutral conditions are present. The international climate outlooks predict ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during JJA 2020, although there is potential that La Niña conditions may begin to develop towards the end of the period or later in the year. The previous positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weakened in January 2020 and the current IOD state is neutral. Some models predict a negative IOD event to develop during JJA, but with relatively high uncertainty at this time of year.

The consensus from ASEANCOF is an increased chance of a negative IOD event to develop during JJA while ENSO conditions are most likely to remain neutral during JJA. The Southwest (SW) Monsoon is expected to be weaker than normal, based on model predictions. However, local rainfall for some regions will depend on tropical cyclone activity, which is uncertain. For most countries, the onset of the SW monsoon is expected to be near-normal. However, the SW monsoon related rainfall may arrive later than normal for a few countries (Thailand and Viet Nam). Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be near normal for JJA 2020.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2020 for the Southeast Asia region:

 

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer season (June-July-August), normal- to above-normal rainfall is expected over much of the equatorial region (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and northern parts of Indonesia) as well as northern Viet Nam and coastal central Viet Nam. Normal- to below-normal rainfall is expected over southern Myanmar, southern and northeastern Thailand, northern Philippines, parts of Lao PDR, and southeastern Indonesia. Elsewhere, normal or climatological probabilities are forecasted.

TEMPERATURE

Above-normal temperature is expected over most of Southeast Asia, although the probability of above-normal temperature is lower over Viet Nam and parts of Indonesia, and northern Philippines.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).
 

Consensus Maps for JJA 2020

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2020 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

image007

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008
 

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-14 Outlook Bulletin
 

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum.

February 3, 2020

Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Mekong sub-region and Attachment Programme (13-16 January 2020)

Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Mekong sub-region and Attachment Programme (13-16 January 2020)

As part of the ASMC 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme for ASEAN Member States, ASMC conducts regular training workshops in the area of land/forest fires and smoke haze monitoring and assessment using data from satellites. This year, the training workshop was held on 13 – 16 January 2020 together with a short attachment stint at ASMC for the Mekong sub-region comprising Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Five participants from the environment, forestry and pollution control sectors joined this year’s programme.

Workshop participants with meteorologists from the ASMC Forecast Office (left). Participants were briefed on the process of assessing the weather and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region (right).

The workshop included lectures for participants to gain foundational understanding of topics such as weather systems in Southeast Asia, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions, interpretation of satellite imageries, data analysis methodologies, and dispersion modelling as a predictive tool. The lectures were supplemented with hands-on exercises in interpretation of satellite data. The participants also had a short attachment at the ASMC Forecast Office, where they worked with ASMC meteorologists to carry out near real-time assessment of the fire and haze situation in the Mekong sub-region.

Hands-on exercises for participants to practise their skills in analysing weather and satellite data to produce an outlook of the haze situation in the Mekong sub-region (left). Participants visited Meteorological Service Singapore’s Centre for Climate Research where they learnt how subseasonal and seasonal forecasts can augment haze monitoring and assessment efforts (right).

Ms Phayvone Sengphone, Research Officer from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Lao PDR, felt that the lectures and activities conducted during the workshop were interesting and applicable to her work. She found the attachment stint useful in providing insights into ASMC’s operations.

Besides such training workshops focusing on monitoring and assessment of regional fires and smoke haze, three other workshops on the themes of Numerical Weather Prediction, Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction, and ASEAN Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) are also in the pipeline for this year.

December 17, 2019

First Module on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (18-22 Nov 2019)

First Module on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (18 – 22 Nov 2019)

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted the Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods Module 1 (WPNM-M1) in Singapore from 18 to 22 November 2019, as part of its 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme rolled out in 2018. The 5-day capability building and knowledge sharing training module was attended by 18 participants from 9 ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and was delivered by lecturers from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) and Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS).

 

Participants from the ASEAN NMHS with lecturers from CCRS and SUSS at the training module conducted by ASMC in Singapore

The objectives of the training module were to provide participants with a deep understanding of the conceptualisation, formulation and limitations of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models; to equip participants with knowledge on the governing equations used in NWP models; and to equip participants with numerical methods to solve these equations and their associated limitations.

 

Dr Teo Chee Kiat, a CCRS lecturer, facilitating the hands-on practical sessions using simplified models

 

A series of 9 lectures were conducted during the WPNM-M1, covering a wide range of topics ranging from the various approximations used in the governing equations, to various numerical methods commonly used in operational NWP systems and key considerations for operational implementation. Hands-on practical sessions were conducted using simplified models which were coded in-house by CCRS lecturers, to illustrate the concepts highlighted during the lectures and to help bridge theory with practical applications.

 

Overall, the training module was well-received by the participants. Almost all participants indicated interest to attend future training modules and expressed support for the continuation of the training series. Participants also commended the use of simplified models for pedagogical purposes. Plans were made to prepare a peer-reviewed publication consolidating the current and possible future NWP efforts in ASEAN.

December 5, 2019

13th ASEAN COF (18-21 November 2019, Thailand)

Thirteenth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-13)

November 2019, Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC)

Consensus Bulletin for December-January-February (DJF) 2019-2020 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale for Southeast Asia.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Thirteenth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-13) was organised by the Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre.

Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter 2019-2020 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2019-2020 outlooks was achieved through the Thirteenth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum and Training in Bangkok, Thailand from 18 to 21 November 2019. The consensus was made based on presentations and discussions on current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery
image_gallery
image_gallery

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific indicate slightly above average SSTs across most of the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO neutral conditions have been present since July 2019. The international climate outlooks predict ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during DJF 2019-2020. The present positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to weaken in DJF 2019-2020. The Northeast monsoon for the southern half of the region is expected to be delayed due to the strong positive IOD at the start of the season.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for DJF 2019-2020 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter season (December-January-February), near-normal conditions are expected over most parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of the equatorial region. However, there is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over northern Vietnam, the eastern part of Malaysia, the eastern part of Celebes, Moluccas and northern part of Papua. There is a slightly increased probability of drier than normal conditions over the southern part of Myanmar, parts of Thailand (the northern, central, eastern and south-eastern of region), Philippines, northern and southern Sumatra, Java, the western part of Celebes, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, the southern part of Borneo and the southern part of Papua.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are expected for most of Southeast Asia, apart from northern Myanmar, southern Thailand and northern Sumatra, where near normal temperatures are expected. For the regions with expected above normal temperature, the highest probability is over northern Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, northern Thailand and southern Myanmar.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for DJF 2019-2020

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2019-2020 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

image007

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-13 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum. The Forum would also like to thank the ASEAN Secretariat, the WMO Secretariat, and the local organising committee from TMD for the administrative and funding support provided to the meeting.

July 22, 2019

3rd Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring (26-28 Jun 2019, Singapore)

Workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Fire and Haze Monitoring for the Southern ASEAN region

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) conducted a workshop on the Use and Interpretation of Data for Land/Forest Fires and Transboundary Haze for the southern ASEAN region in Singapore on 26 – 28 June 2019. Participants from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors of Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand took part in the workshop.
 

Participants group photo - Southern ASMC workshop Jun 2019

ASMC engages with users from the forestry, environment and pollution control sectors in region through various means, including the conduct of customised training workshops.

 

Participants group photo - Southern ASMC workshop Jun 2019

In her welcome address, ASMC Director of Operations, Ms Patricia Ee emphasised the Centre’s commitment to serve the region as the ASEAN centre for monitoring, assessment and early warning of fires and transboundary smoke haze, and the need for collaboration among ASEAN Members to address land/forest fires and transboundary haze pollution issues.

 
The ASMC trainers shared on basic meteorology, remote sensing technologies, weather and climate prediction, as well as haze modelling tools. Case studies and exercises were incorporated so that participants could apply what they have learnt and acquire practical hands-on experience with the assistance of the trainer. The participants also visited an Air Quality Monitoring station and the ASMC operations centre.
 

Tour of ASMC operational facilities and visit to air quality station

Participants on a tour of the ASMC operational facilities (left) and an air quality monitoring station in Singapore (right). They were given a brief on how the Centre conducts monitoring and assessment of regional haze situation using the latest satellite technologies and numerical modelling tools.

 
Ms Haryanti Petra from the Brunei Department of Environment, Parks and Recreation commended the wide range of topics covered in the workshop and noted that the hands–on exercises and activities to assess hotspots and transboundary haze on satellite images were useful.

This training workshop was conducted as part of the 5-year Regional Capability Building Programme rolled out by the ASMC in 2018, aimed to benefit ASEAN Member States through the sharing of technical knowledge and skills. Under the Programme, ASMC is investing S$5 million to enhance its efforts in capability building covering four key priority areas, viz weather forecasting, sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, climate change projections and haze monitoring.

May 31, 2019

12th ASEAN COF (May 2019, Online Correspondence)

Twelfth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-12)

May 2019, Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC)

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2019 Season

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Twelfth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-12) was organised by the Thai Meteorological Department in collaboration with Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the Summer Monsoon 2019 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2019 outlooks was achieved through online correspondence. The consensus was made based on completed questionnaires regarding current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region as well as an online discussion. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.

image_gallery
image_gallery
image_gallery

Conditions and Outlook

Recent analysis of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the Equatorial Pacific indicate above average SSTs across most of the Pacific Ocean. Borderline El Niño conditions have been present since SON 2018. The international climate outlooks predict El Niño conditions are likely to continue during JJA 2019. The present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop into a positive IOD in JJA 2019 and the later part of the year.

The Summer Monsoon is predicted to be normal throughout Southeast Asia. As such, near normal occurrence of tropical cyclones is expected over the Bay of Bengal. Due to the prediction of a normal Summer Monsoon along with El Niño conditions, the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Philippines is expected to be below normal.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2019 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon season (June-July-August), below normal conditions are expected over most parts of the Southeast Asia. However, there is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over western and southern Myanmar and parts of Sumatra, Northern Celebes, Moluccas, and Papua islands of Indonesia.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are expected over much of central and eastern Southeast Asia, including parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, central and western Indonesia. Normal to above normal temperature are expected elsewhere, including Philippines, Moluccas and Papua islands of Indonesia.

Refer to Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMHSs should be consulted (see Annex B).

Consensus Maps for JJA 2019

The following maps provide the probabilistic outlooks for JJA 2019 season in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN: upper tercile), “Near Normal (NN: middle tercile) and “Below Normal” (BN: lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

image007

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

image008

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-12 Outlook Bulletin

Acknowledgements

The Forum would like to convey its appreciation to the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member States for sharing their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this Climate Outlook Forum.