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9th ASEAN COF (15-17 Nov 2017, Hanoi)

The Ninth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-9) was held in Hanoi, Vietnam from 15-17 November 2017. The Forum was organised by the National Hydro-Meteorological Service of Viet Nam (NHMS) in cooperation with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). The Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) provided financial support for the Forum through its funded project: “Building Resilience to High-Impact Hydrometeorological Events through Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Southeast Asia (SEA)”. The event was co-funded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and NHMS Viet Nam.

The Forum was attended by representatives of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam who discussed on the consensus outlook. They were joined by experts from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME). Seasonal climate outlooks from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK MetOffice (UKMO) was presented by ASMC on their behalves. The Forum also reviewed the present climate conditions in the Southeast Asia region, and discussed the various global and regional climatic factors that will influence the DJF season in the area. In particular, the Forum took into account the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as well as tropical cyclones and monsoon activities on the climate over Southeast Asia.

The ASEANCOF is an avenue to collaboratively develop a consensus-based seasonal climate outlook and related information on a regional scale. The Forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN NMHSs. The Forum also supports the activities of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre Network (SEA RCC-Network) – which entered the demonstration phase on 7 November 2017 – by providing the consensus outlook as well as the platform to discuss issues on provision of climate services in the Southeast Asia region.

          

Conditions and Outlook for DJF 2017-2018

Sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently cool (negative anomaly) with La Niña like or borderline conditions. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO conditions (e.g. the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) are broadly within neutral at the moment.

However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool. There is chance of a weak La Niña forming in late 2017 of at least 60%, around double the normal likelihood for La Niña. If it forms, the event is not expected to last beyond March 2018. While varying in local impacts, La Niña events are generally associated with wetter-than-average rainfall conditions over the ASEAN region, especially in the southern and eastern halves of the region.

The IOD index was recently slightly positive (warmer western Indian Ocean SST, and cooler eastern Indian Ocean SST) but is predicted to be neutral in DJF 2017-2018. The monsoon trough will be active in the south of Vietnam and over the Philippines for DJF 2017-2018. Thus more convective rainfall and tropical storms activities are expected there.

Taking into consideration the present status of the climate conditions affecting Southeast Asia, the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, and the national-level assessment from the NMHSs, the Forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for the DJF 2017-2018 season for Southeast Asia.

RAINFALL

For the upcoming boreal winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb 2017-2018), above normal rainfall is favoured over the eastern Maritime Continent, southern Vietnam, and central and southern Thailand. Below normal rainfall is slightly favoured over western Borneo and northern Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere near normal rainfall is favoured.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are favoured over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming boreal winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb 2017-2018), with the highest probabilities over the eastern Maritime Continent, northern Mainland Southeast Asia, and Sumatra. Below normal temperatures are favoured over northern Philippines and southern Vietnam.

Refer to Outlook Bulletin Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Outlook Bulletin Annex B). The review for the JJA 2017 consensus outlook from ASEANCOF-8 is included in the Outlook Bulletin Annex C for reference.

Consensus Maps for DJF 2017-2018

The following maps provides the probabilistic outlooks for DJF 2017-2018 in terms of tercile categories of “Above Normal” (AN; upper tercile), “Near Normal” (NN; middle tercile), and “Below Normal” (BN; lower tercile).

PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL OUTLOOK

PROBABILISTIC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-9 Outlook Bulletin

8th ASEAN COF (May 2017, Online Correspondence)

Introduction

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services.

The Eighth ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-8) was organized by Meteorological Services Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. Representative from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of 10 ASEAN Member countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam created a consensus forecast for the summer monsoon 2017 in the ASEAN region. As with previous June-July-August (JJA) outlooks, the consensus was achieved through online correspondence. Each country completed a questionnaire on the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

Conditions & Outlook

Recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific indicate an ENSO neutral state. The warmer than average SSTs in the eastern Pacific weakened slightly in May.

During JJA 2017, international climate outlooks show a near equal chance of conditions remaining neutral and a weak El Niño developing. An El Niño is indicated by warmer SST over central and eastern tropical Pacific, and often leads to drier conditions for Southeast Asia. Should an El Niño develop, the conditions are expected to be weak and have less impact on the Maritime Continent than previous El Niño events.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently slightly positive, but still within the neutral state. While some international climate models predict a positive IOD for JJA, the skill of the models is low at this point.

The Southwest Monsoon is predicted to be near normal, but over the Western North Pacific monsoon surges may occur during the passage of tropical cyclones. For the Bay of Bengal, the number of TCs is predicted to be normal to above normal.

Taking into consideration the national level forecasts, the present state of the climate, and the forecasts available from GPCs and other global centers, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for JJA 2017 for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season (June-July-August), drier than normal conditions are expected over central and southern Southeast Asia, including southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, Java, Singapore and Sarawak. There is a slightly enhanced probability of wetter than normal conditions over coastal Myanmar, northern Thailand, northern Philippines, northern Papua, and northern Kalimantan. Near normal conditions are predicted for the rest of the region, including most of mainland Southeast Asia.

TEMPERATURE

Near normal or above normal temperatures are expected over much of Southeast Asia for the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season (June-July-August). Above normal temperature is expected over much of Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei, Sarawak, Thailand, and northern Myanmar.

Refer to Outlook Bulletin Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Outlook Bulletin Annex B). The review for the DJF 2016 consensus outlook from ASEANCOF-7 is included in the Outlook Bulletin Annex C for reference.

Consensus Maps for JJA 2017

Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook

Probabilistic Temperature Outlook

Acknowledgements

The forum would like to thank the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member countries for conveying their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this climate outlook forum.

7th ASEAN COF (14-18 Nov 2016, Manila)

The Seventh ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-7) was organised by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in cooperation with ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center, with funding support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). As with previous ASEANCOF meetings, representatives from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of all 8 ASEAN Member countries: Brunei, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam convened to create a consensus forecast of winter monsoon 2016-17 (DJF) in the ASEAN region. In addition, experts from the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs): Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Climate Prediction Center (CPC, NOAA), Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), APEC Climate Center (APCC), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME) also shared their respective outlooks and guided the forum through building a consensus statement in the region.

The ASEANCOF is an avenue to collaboratively develop a consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services. The consensus outlook for the December-January-February 2016-2017 season for the ASEAN region benefits from the guidance of the WMO GPC model outputs, as well as other global providers.  In particular, use is made of the multi-model ensemble forecasts from WMO LC-LRFMME as well as country-level forecasts developed by the participating national experts. The forum reviewed the present climate conditions in the Southeast Asia region, and discussed the various global and regional climatic factors that will influence the DJF season in the area. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

Conditions and Outlook for DJF 2016-2017

Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific remain cooler than average since July-August-September 2016 season indicating La Niña-like conditions. However, recent analyses of atmospheric conditions remain within the neutral range.

A number of climate models slightly favor weak and short-lived La Niña to persist in DJF 2016-17. La Niña is characterized by persistent cooler tropical Pacific SST anomalies, SSTA (-0.5°C or below) and stronger easterly winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. While varying in local impacts, La Niña events are generally associated with wetter-than-average rainfall conditions over the ASEAN region, especially in the southern and eastern half of the region.

The IOD is predicted to be in a weakly negative to neutral state in DJF 2016-17. Negative IOD is generally associated with warmer than usual SSTA in tropical eastern Indian Ocean in contrast with cooler than normal SSTA in tropical western Indian Ocean. While negative IOD can potentially reinforce the impacts of La Niña, climate models generally do not predict persistence in negative IOD values.

It is also predicted that the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific Region will be above average in DJF 2016-17. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal will likely remain near average.

Finally, a number of climate models show that the northeast Monsoon is likely stronger than average. It is, however, noteworthy that the effects of this predicted strength in the monsoon could potentially be confined to the northern portions of the region.

Taking into consideration the national-level forecasts, the present status of the climate conditions affecting Southeast Asia, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for the DJF 2016-17 season for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb 2016-17), there is a slightly enhanced probability of below normal rainfall over northern mainland Southeast Asia, near normal to above normal rainfall over central and western Southeast Asia, which includes most parts of Thailand, Cambodia, southern Myanmar, and western portion of the Philippines. Slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal rainfall are predicted over the rest of the Philippines and eastern Maritime Continent.

TEMPERATURE

Slightly above to above normal air temperatures are very likely to occur over much of Southeast Asia region for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), with the highest probabilities over the northern portions of Myanmar, Vietnam, and Lao. Near average air temperatures are predicted over Thailand and Philippines.

Refer to Outlook Bulletin Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Outlook Bulletin Annex B). The review for the JJA 2016 consensus outlook from ASEANCOF-6 is included in the Outlook Bulletin Annex C for reference.

Consensus Maps for DJF 2016-2017

The forum would like to thank the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member countries for conveying their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this climate outlook forum. The forum would also like to thank the WMO Secretariat for providing support and guidance for this bulletin.

Meeting Documents

ASEANCOF-7 Outlook Bulletin
Climate Services Survey Results for ASEAN NMHSs 2016-2017

6th ASEAN COF (31 May, Online Correspondence)

The Sixth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-6) was organised by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, with the assistance of the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC). The ASEANCOF-was convened via email correspondence between the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of all 10 ASEAN Member countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam and experts from the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs): Japan Meteorological Agency, (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP, NOAA), Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE), United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), and WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME).

The aim of the forum is to provide collaboratively developed and consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for ASEAN region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological Services. The consensus outlook for the June-July-August 2016 season for the ASEAN region benefits from the guidance of the WMO GPC model outputs, as well as other global providers. In particular, use is made of the multi-model ensemble forecasts from WMO LC-LRFMME as well as country-level forecasts developed by the participating national experts. The forum reviewed the present climate conditions in the Southeast Asia region, and discussed the various global and regional climatic factors that will influence the JJA season in the area. In particular, the forum took into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.

Conditions and Outlook for JJA 2016

Recent analyses of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific have confirmed that the on-going El Niño is in its decaying stage and is likely to end before Northern Hemisphere Summer 2016. In May 2016, positive weak SSTAs were observed confirming that an ENSO-neutral condition is likely to develop in May-June-July 2016 season.

During June-July-August 2016, most international climate outlook models favor the development of La Niña condition. La Niña is characterized by persistent cooler tropical Pacific SST anomalies (-0.5°C or below) and stronger easterly winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. While varying in local impacts, La Niña events are generally associated with wetter-than-average rainfall conditions over the ASEAN region, especially in the southern half of the region.

The IOD is predicted to be in a persistent negative state starting in JJA 2016 and is likely to continue towards the end of 2016. Negative IOD is generally associated with warmer than SSTA in tropical eastern Indian Ocean in contrast with cooler than normal SSTA in tropical western Indian Ocean. While negative IOD can potentially reinforce the impacts of La Niña, the low skills of climate models for IOD during JJA 2016 should be taken into consideration.

A limited assessment of few models revealed the presence of anomalous anticyclones (at 850-hPa) over northeastern Philippines suggesting weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon and enhanced wet southwesterly wind flow towards northern Southeast Asia.

Taking into consideration the national-level forecasts, the present status of the climate conditions affecting Southeast Asia, and the forecasts available from the GPCs and other global centres, the forum agreed on the following consensus-based outlook for the JJA 2016 season for the Southeast Asia region:

RAINFALL

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season (June-July-Aug), there is a slightly enhanced probability of above normal rainfall over the Maritime Continent, which includes most parts of Borneo, Singapore, and southern Sumatra. Slightly enhanced probabilities of below normal rainfall are predicted over northern Philippines. Elsewhere over the region, there are slightly enhanced probabilities for near normal rainfall.

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are very likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season (June-July-Aug), with the highest probabilities over the Philippines and mainland Southeast Asia.

Refer to Outlook Bulletin Annex A for reference on what is meant by “above, near, or below normal” in the outlook. For more information on the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon outlook and further updates on the national scale, the relevant NMSs should be consulted (see Outlook Bulletin Annex B). The review for the DJF 2015-16 consensus outlook from ASEANCOF-5 is included in Outlook Bulletin Annex C for reference.

Consensus Maps for JJA 2016

Acknowledgements

The forum would like to thank the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member countries for conveying their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres, and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this climate outlook forum. The forum would also like to thank the WMO Secretariat for providing support and guidance for this bulletin.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF-6 Outlook Bulletin

5th ASEAN COF (18-19 Nov 2015, Singapore)

The Fifth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-5) was organised in Singapore from 18-19 November 2015 by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). This event was supported and co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). ASEANCOF-5 was attended by the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of all 10 ASEAN Member countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The meeting was also attended by experts from the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPC): Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Australia, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP, NOAA), WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), as well as the APEC Climate Centre (APCC), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES). End-user representatives from the hydrological sector, coordinated by the Global Water Partnership South East Asia (GWP-SEA), and from the disaster-risk management agencies, coordinated by the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance, (AHA Centre) were also present.

Consensus Outlook for the Boreal Winter Monsoon (DJF 2015-2016) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), there is a strongly enhanced probability of below normal rainfall over the Philippines and the north-eastern part of Borneo Island. Over the eastern Maritime Continent and over the northern part of Mainland Southeast Asia, there are slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal rainfall. Elsewhere over the region, there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal or below normal rainfall.

Above normal temperatures are very likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), with the highest probabilities over the central and western Maritime Continent.

Acknowledgements

The forum would like to thank the National Meteorological Services of the ASEAN Member countries for conveying their national-level forecasts, the Global Producing Centres and other participating international climate modelling centres for their products and expertise made available for this climate outlook forum, as well as the participants from the end-user communities coordinated by GWP-SEA and AHA Centre for their contributions. The forum would also like to thank the WMO Secretariat and the USAID for providing support and sponsorship for this event, and to IRI and APCC for coordinating the Pre-COF training workshop.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF 5 Meeting Report

4th ASEAN COF (21-22 May 2015, Jakarta)

The fourth ASEANCOF meeting was held in the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, in Jakarta Indonesia from 21-22 May 2015. It was attended by representatives of the National Meteorological Services from the ASEAN Member countries: Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. The meeting was also attended by representative from the WMO secretariat and experts of the WMO Global Producing Centers: UK Met Office, NOAA, Bureau of Meteorology Australia, and CPTEC Brazil. The forum was preceded by a week-long training and working session organized by NOAA with support from USAID. WMO provided co-sponsorship and technical support to ASEANCOF-4.

Consensus Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon (JJA 2015) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) season in 2015, there is strongly enhanced probability for below normal rainfall over the southern part of the Maritime Continent and the eastern margins of mainland Southeast Asia. Over the remainder of mainland Southeast Asia there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal to below normal rainfall, while over the Philippines there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal to above normal rainfall.

Above normal temperatures are most likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the Northern Hemisphere summer, with the highest probabilities over the western Maritime Continent and mainland Southeast Asia. Below normal temperatures are slightly favoured over a relatively small area in the south-eastern part of the Maritime Continent.

Acknowledgements

The forum appreciates the participation of the ASEAN Member countries in conveying their national-level forecast. The forum also appreciates the products and expertise made available from the GPCs for this climate outlook forum. The forum thanked the continuous support from the WMO secretariat and also to the USAID for providing sponsorship for this event.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF 4 Meeting Report

3rd ASEAN COF (17-18 Nov 2014, Singapore)

The Third ASEAN Regional Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-3) was held on 17-18 November 2014 in Singapore ahead of the December-February (DJF) boreal winter monsoon season. The third day, 19 November 2014, was dedicated for training of ASEAN National Meteorological Services (NMSs) participants in ensemble seasonal prediction systems. ASEANCOF-3 was sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and organised by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC).

Consensus Outlook for the Boreal Winter Monsoon (DJF 2014-2015) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

The consensus outlook takes guidance from the dynamical model outputs of the different WMO recognised Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and other institutions, in particular the multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME) and APEC Climate Centre (APCC). It also considers the prediction skill and associated confidence that can be derived from the models, as well as the seasonal evolution of large-scale circulation features of importance to Southeast Asian climate, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Another key component of the consensus outlook is the national-level forecasts for the different Southeast Asian countries provided by experts from the respective National Meteorological Services (NMSs).

Using the above as a basis, the seasonal outlook for DJF 2014-2015 is as follows:

For the upcoming boreal winter monsoon (December-February, DJF) season, normal to below normal rainfall is favoured over most of the southern and eastern parts of the Maritime Continent. Elsewhere, generally normal to above normal rainfall is favoured.

Above normal temperature conditions are generally favoured over the whole Southeast Asia region for boreal winter monsoon, with higher probabilities of above normal temperature over the central, tropical regions.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

ASEAN COF 3 Meeting Report

2nd ASEAN COF (29 May 2014, Singapore)

The second session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-2) was held via video conferencing hosted by the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), of the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), on 29 May 2014 from 0600 – 0830 UTC. This was held on behalf of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) and attended by representatives from the ASEAN countries of Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Consensus Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon (JJA 2014) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming Southwest Summer Monsoon (June-July-August) season, normal to below normal rainfall is expected over most of the southern parts of Southeast Asia as well as the central and eastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, generally normal to above normal rainfall can be expected.

Above normal temperature conditions are generally expected over the whole Southeast Asia region for summer monsoon, with higher probabilities of above normal temperature over the southern parts of the region.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

2nd ASEAN COF Meeting Report

1st ASEAN COF (3-5 Dec 2013, Singapore)

The first session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-1) was held in Singapore at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), a newly established centre of the MSS, from 3-5 December 2013. Representatives from the ASEAN countries of Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam attended the meeting. In addition, representatives also attended from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) namely Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), UK Met Office (UKMO) and WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), as well as the APEC Climate Centre (APCC).

Consensus Outlook for the Northeast Monsoon (DJF 2013-2014) Rainfall and Temperature over Southeast Asia

For the upcoming boreal winter (December-January-February) season, normal to above normal rainfall is expected over most of the southern parts of Southeast Asia. On the other hand, over the northern parts of Southeast Asia, which is a climatologically dry region during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, normal to slightly below normal rainfall can be expected.

Generally, above normal temperature conditions are expected over the whole Southeast Asia region for boreal winter, with enhanced probabilities over the southern parts of the region. Normal to slightly above normal temperature conditions can be expected over northern parts.

Acknowledgements

The Organising Secretariat would like to thank USAid for funding ASEANCOF-3, along with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their support of this event.

Meeting Documents

Meeting Programme
Final Report
Report on User Requirements