Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (18 April – 1 May 2022)

Issued: 14 April 2022
First forecast week: 18 April – 24 April
Second forecast week: 25 April – 1 May

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 April – 1 May). Wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 April), covering the eastern half of Myanmar and western half of Thailand.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (18 – 24 April).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first two weeks of April. While some models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period, others predict MJO activity in the Western Pacific (Phase 7) and the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during Week 1.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (18 April – 1 May 2022)

Issued: 14 April 2022
First forecast week: 18 April – 24 April
Second forecast week: 25 April – 1 May

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are expected over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (18 April – 1 May). Wetter conditions are also predicted over parts of central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (18 – 24 April), covering the eastern half of Myanmar and western half of Thailand.

Cooler temperatures than usual are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (18 – 24 April).

No discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present in the first two weeks of April. While some models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period, others predict MJO activity in the Western Pacific (Phase 7) and the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phases 8 and 1) during Week 1.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.