Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (7 – 20 February 2022)

 
Issued: 4 February 2022
First forecast week: 7 February – 13 February
Second forecast week: 14 February – 20 February

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February) over the region between the equator and 10°N (including the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northern Borneo and southern Philippines) and also the southern Maritime Continent.

Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February) over central and southern Sumatra.

For temperature, warmer than usual conditions are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the Philippines in Week 1 (7 – 13 February). Warmer conditions are also expected over the region around Sumatra in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February), in line with the drier conditions predicted.

Cooler than usual conditions are expected for northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February).

At the start of February, there was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. Some models predict an MJO to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) in Week 1 and then propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5), while other models predict the MJO to remain weak over the forecast period.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (7 – 20 February 2022)

 
Issued: 4 February 2022
First forecast week: 7 February – 13 February
Second forecast week: 14 February – 20 February

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

Wetter conditions are expected in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February) over the region between the equator and 10°N (including the Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra, northern Borneo and southern Philippines) and also the southern Maritime Continent.

Drier conditions are expected in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February) over central and southern Sumatra.

For temperature, warmer than usual conditions are expected over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the Philippines in Week 1 (7 – 13 February). Warmer conditions are also expected over the region around Sumatra in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February), in line with the drier conditions predicted.

Cooler than usual conditions are expected for northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (7 – 20 February).

At the start of February, there was no Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. Some models predict an MJO to develop over the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) in Week 1 and then propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5), while other models predict the MJO to remain weak over the forecast period.
 
The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.