Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Sep – 15 Sep 2018)

Issued 30 Aug 2018
valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 Sep – 15 Sep 2018

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

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The traditional rainy season over the northern ASEAN region is forecast to persist in the first fortnight of September 2018. During this period there is expected to be less rainfall than average in the region around 10°N, particularly towards the end of the first week. Along with the drier conditions, warmer temperatures are also expected inland areas of northern Southeast Asia.

In the southern ASEAN region, rainfall and temperatures are generally expected to be near-average, but areas along the equatorial belt may experience slightly wetter conditions in the first fortnight of September.

Some models forecast the MJO to re-emerge in the ASEAN region during this outlook period, and this may lower the likelihood of drier conditions in the northern ASEAN region.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (1 Sep – 15 Sep 2018)

Issued 30 Aug 2018
valid for weeks 1 and 2: 1 Sep – 15 Sep 2018

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

.

The traditional rainy season over the northern ASEAN region is forecast to persist in the first fortnight of September 2018. During this period there is expected to be less rainfall than average in the region around 10°N, particularly towards the end of the first week. Along with the drier conditions, warmer temperatures are also expected inland areas of northern Southeast Asia.

In the southern ASEAN region, rainfall and temperatures are generally expected to be near-average, but areas along the equatorial belt may experience slightly wetter conditions in the first fortnight of September.

Some models forecast the MJO to re-emerge in the ASEAN region during this outlook period, and this may lower the likelihood of drier conditions in the northern ASEAN region.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.