Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the central and western Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 January).

Cooler than usual temperature is expected over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (6 – 12 January). These cooler conditions may persist over Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (13 – 19 January).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of the year. Models predict this MJO signal to become inactive during the first week of January, then re-emerge over the Western Hemisphere (Phases 8 and 1) in Week 1. Most models predict the signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the central and western Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (6 – 19 January).

Cooler than usual temperature is expected over much of the northern ASEAN region in Week 1 (6 – 12 January). These cooler conditions may persist over Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (13 – 19 January).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) at the start of the year. Models predict this MJO signal to become inactive during the first week of January, then re-emerge over the Western Hemisphere (Phases 8 and 1) in Week 1. Most models predict the signal to continue propagating eastwards through the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) during Week 2.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.