Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Wetter conditions are predicted over southwestern and central parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and much of the southern ASEAN region in Week 1 (14 – 20 October). Wetter conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

Drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of northern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (14 – 20 October). Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) at the start of October. An MJO signal is predicted to propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 1. Most models predict this MJO signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2, although some models predict the signal to reach Phase 6 by the end of Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Wetter conditions are predicted over southwestern and central parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and much of the southern ASEAN region in Week 1 (14 – 20 October). Wetter conditions are also predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

Drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of northern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (14 – 20 October). Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region in Week 2 (21 – 27 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2 and 3) at the start of October. An MJO signal is predicted to propagate through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) in Week 1. Most models predict this MJO signal to reach the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2, although some models predict the signal to reach Phase 6 by the end of Week 1.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.