Subseasonal Weather Outlook (5 – 18 August 2024)

Issued: 31 July 2024
First forecast week: 5 – 11 August 2024
Second forecast week: 12 – 18 August 2024

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Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

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Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

Drier conditions are predicted over southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines in the next fortnight (5 – 18 August). Drier conditions are also predicted over the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight.

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region in the next fortnight (5 – 18 August).

Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and the Philippines in the next fortnight (5 – 18 August). Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over parts of the western and southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight.

No Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present during end of July based on the RMM index. Most models predict no significant MJO activity during the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.