Subseasonal Weather Outlook and Review

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (17 – 30 October 2022)

Issued: 14 October 2022
First forecast week: 17 October – 23 October
Second forecast week: 24 October – 30 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For rainfall, wetter conditions are expected over much of the central Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (17 – 30 October). Wetter conditions are also predicted around the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (17 – 23 October). Drier conditions are expected over much of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (17 – 23 October).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is expected over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (17 – 23 October), while warmer than usual temperature is predicted to develop over much of Myanmar in Week 2 (24 – 30 October). Over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over the next fortnight (17 – 30 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated to the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the middle of October. Models forecast the MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during most of the forecast period. However, there is significant variation in the strength of the MJO signal among the models.
 

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Subseasonal Weather Outlook (17 – 30 October 2022)

Issued: 14 October 2022
First forecast week: 17 October – 23 October
Second forecast week: 24 October – 30 October

Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2: Temperature Outlook

 

For rainfall, wetter conditions are expected over much of the central Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (17 – 30 October). Wetter conditions are also predicted around the Malay Peninsula in Week 1 (17 – 23 October). Drier conditions are expected over much of western and central Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (17 – 23 October).

For temperature, cooler than usual temperature is expected over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (17 – 23 October), while warmer than usual temperature is predicted to develop over much of Myanmar in Week 2 (24 – 30 October). Over parts of the southern Maritime Continent, cooler than usual temperature is predicted over the next fortnight (17 – 30 October).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagated to the Western Pacific (Phase 6) by the middle of October. Models forecast the MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during most of the forecast period. However, there is significant variation in the strength of the MJO signal among the models.
 

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.